{"frequency":"weekly","subject":"Weekly Space Intelligence: Starship Nails IFT 11 \u0026 Stoke’s $510M Raise. Plus Mach33’s Q3 SpaceX Valuation","introduction":"\u003cdiv\u003eSpaceX closed out its Block 2 campaign with a \u003cstrong\u003enear-flawless 11th Starship test flight\u003c/strong\u003e, Stoke Space raised $510 million to accelerate development of its fully reusable Nova launch vehicle. \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOur \u003cstrong\u003eupdated Stoke Investment Guide\u003c/strong\u003e breaks down the raise, Nova’s progress at LC-14, and why we view Stoke as a high-conviction position for the next decade. \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe’re also releasing the \u003cstrong\u003eQ3 SpaceX Quarterly\u003c/strong\u003e, featuring Mach33’s updated valuation and model refinements to premium research members; a must-read for institutional investors tracking the next trillion-dollar aerospace story. Click below on the \u003cstrong\u003eQ3 SpaceX Quarterly Report\u003c/strong\u003e to log in and request access to the \u003cstrong\u003eMach33 Premium Research Package\u003c/strong\u003e, which includes quarterly deep-dives, direct analyst access, and expanded coverage across the \u003cstrong\u003elaunch and satellite communications markets\u003c/strong\u003e.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e","banner":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU2NiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--f3a6cef8bb4c32e66ccd1d4d7e034177b1cd9ec8/Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20M33_NewsletterBanner%20(2).jpg","posts":[{"title":"SpaceX Intelligence Q3'25 Report","slug":"spacex-intelligence-q3-25-report","visibility":"paid","type":"report","summary":"Mach33’s Q3 SpaceX Quarterly Report delivers the most comprehensive, data-driven valuation of SpaceX available outside the company. Built on our proprietary model, this quarter integrates updated Monte Carlo simulations with new Direct-to-Cell revenue modelling, and refined Starship reusability and production assumptions, and much more. We project detailed valuations for year-end 2025 and 2030. Beyond the numbers, the report explains why SpaceX’s economics are shifting toward infrastructure-grade cash flows; insights that generalist investors rarely capture. Premium research members can download the report above. [Quarterly Content Preview]By registering for access, readers unlock the Mach33 Premium Research Package, including quarterly deep-dives and direct analyst consultations. Our Premium members are the first to receive forward-looking intelligence as we expand coverage across the global launch and satellite communications markets, tracking the next generation of commercial space leaders alongside SpaceX.","card_description":"\u003cdiv\u003eMach33’s \u003cstrong\u003eQ3 SpaceX Quarterly Report\u003c/strong\u003e breaks down the latest updates to our valuation model with updated valuations for year-end 2025 and 2030.\u003c/div\u003e","tags":["Broadband","DTC","Launch","SpaceX","Valuation"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/analysis/spacex-intelligence-q3-25-report","published_at":"Oct 15, 2025","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU4NywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--13081fd9030c4bf326acf47b36d287d6d0bebf4e/M33_NewsletterBanner.jpg"},{"title":"Stoke Investment Guide — October 2025 Update is live","slug":"stoke-investment-guide-october-2025-update-is-live","visibility":"public","type":"report","summary":"Stoke Space closes a $510M Series D, bringing total funding to $990M as it scales manufacturing of the fully reusable Nova launch vehicle. Our updated October 2025 Investment Guide breaks down the round, progress at LC-14, and why Stoke remains one of Mach33’s highest-conviction positions.","card_description":"\u003cdiv\u003eStoke Space closes a \u003cstrong\u003e$510M Series D\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003e$100M debt facility\u003c/strong\u003e, bringing total funding to \u003cstrong\u003e$990M\u003c/strong\u003e as it scales manufacturing of the fully reusable Nova launch vehicle. Our updated \u003cstrong\u003eOctober 2025 Investment Guide\u003c/strong\u003e breaks down the round, progress at LC-14, and why Stoke remains one of Mach33’s highest-conviction positions.\u003c/div\u003e","tags":["Stoke Space","Launch"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/analysis/stoke-investment-guide-october-2025-update-is-live","published_at":"Oct 09, 2025","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU2OCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--c97ec1d4bb5804b39e2f2bf242d54b1c67eede15/Screenshot%202025-10-14%20at%2016.56.17.jpg"}],"charts":[],"news":[{"title":"K2 Space Books Multi‑Orbit Satellite Launch With SpaceX","summary":"K2 Space plans to launch three satellites on a SpaceX Falcon 9 mission to operate across LEO, MEO, and GEO. ","tags":["K2 Space"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/k2-space-books-multi-orbit-satellite-launch-with-spacex","published_at":"Oct 14, 2025","source":"Satellitetoday","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU2OSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--8cba772b7b848096f2894122a2bd05b29a7d8e1c/k2.jpeg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eK2 Space\u003c/strong\u003e announced its \u003cstrong\u003e2027 “Trinity” mission\u003c/strong\u003e with \u003cstrong\u003eSpaceX\u003c/strong\u003e, which will deploy \u003cstrong\u003ethree satellites across low, medium, and geostationary Earth orbits\u003c/strong\u003e on a single Falcon 9. The demonstration aims to validate a \u003cstrong\u003emulti-orbit spacecraft bus\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003ecross-orbit command architecture\u003c/strong\u003e, showcasing K2’s vision of interconnected constellations that can dynamically route data and share assets between orbital layers.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eIn a multi-orbit framework, each layer plays a distinct role: \u003cstrong\u003eLEO provides low latency and high throughput\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong\u003eMEO delivers regional resiliency and optimized latency-performance balance\u003c/strong\u003e, and \u003cstrong\u003eGEO contributes persistent coverage and network stability\u003c/strong\u003e for backhaul, broadcast, and control-plane management. This model allows operators to combine the strengths of each orbital regime. For investors, such \u003cstrong\u003elayered network architectures\u003c/strong\u003e could become a defining feature of next-generation broadband and Earth-observation systems, enabling long-term scalability and competitive moat through integrated performance and cost efficiency.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"Jared Isaacman in Talks to Reenter NASA Leadership Role","summary":null,"tags":["NASA","Regulatory"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/jared-isaacman-in-talks-to-reenter-nasa-leadership-role","published_at":"Oct 14, 2025","source":"Reuters","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU3MCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--23d02a2d5cd55edbc71e30beae89e03bc7457c2d/hared.jpeg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eJared Isaacman\u003c/strong\u003e, a private astronaut and known ally of Elon Musk, held meetings with acting NASA leadership about reinstatement as a NASA administrator nomination. Isaacman previously was removed from contention earlier this year but may now be reconsidered.\u0026nbsp;\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eIf confirmed, Isaacman’s leadership could tilt NASA further toward private‑sector partnerships, potentially accelerating procurement reforms and public‑private mission integration. For contractors and space firms, this could mean quicker adaptation cycles, new funding models, and altered competitive dynamics within NASA’s portfolio.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"Starship Aces 11th Test Flight","summary":"SpaceX closed a chapter in its Starship saga on Monday. It launched what appeared to be a nearly flawless suborbital mission with its Version 2 Starship-Super Heavy rocket, the final flight for this iteration of the launch vehicle.","tags":["Starship","Launch","SpaceX"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/starship-aces-11th-test-flight","published_at":"Oct 13, 2025","source":"Spaceflightnow","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU2MywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--c0013d46f842b03b834f8fb1d0370ed9466400a8/flkight11.jpg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eSpaceX completed the \u003cstrong\u003e11th Starship test and final flight of its Block 2 Starship\u003c/strong\u003e, marking a major milestone before transitioning to the upgraded, operational design. The launch from Starbase achieved \u003cstrong\u003eall primary objectives:\u003c/strong\u003e successful booster separation, Raptor engine relight in space, mock Starlink payload deployment, controlled reentry, and splashdown in the Indian Ocean.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe mission is widely viewed as a \u003cstrong\u003e“near-flawless” systems validation\u003c/strong\u003e of the current architecture. It demonstrated significant progress in \u003cstrong\u003ethermal protection performance, attitude control, and engine restart reliability\u003c/strong\u003e, closing out a year of increasingly successful flight tests after drawbacks earlier in the year.\u0026nbsp;\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eStarship’s reliability curve is steepening. With Block 3 hardware now in preparation, SpaceX is approaching \u003cstrong\u003eoperational maturity for fully reusable heavy launch;\u003c/strong\u003e a development that could \u003cstrong\u003ecompress global launch economics\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eaccelerate Starlink and lunar program timelines\u003c/strong\u003e.The next phase will test \u003cstrong\u003eorbital insertion, in-space refuelling, and second-stage reusability\u003c/strong\u003e, all prerequisites for scaling Starlink Gen 3 deployments and supporting NASA’s Artemis missions. As Starship edges toward sustained reuse and production cadence, the \u003cstrong\u003ecapex amortization per kilogram to orbit\u003c/strong\u003e will decline sharply, a direct driver of long-term valuation upside in Mach33’s models.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"SpaceX Launches 24 Kuiper Satellites After Weather Delays","summary":"Update Oct. 13, 11:27 p.m. EDT (0327 UTC): SpaceX confirmed deployment of the Kuiper satellites.","tags":["Amazon Kuiper","Broadband","SpaceX"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/spacex-launches-24-kuiper-satellites-after-weather-delays","published_at":"Oct 13, 2025","source":"Spaceflightnow","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU2NSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--42b9b9f514b8956992835f8be799b4e0a4d53d99/kuoper.jpg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eSpaceX successfully launched \u003cstrong\u003e24 Amazon Kuiper satellites\u003c/strong\u003e aboard a Falcon 9 following multiple weather‑related delays. The deployment expands Kuiper’s constellation capacity and demonstrates SpaceX’s continued role as a launch provider for competitor satellite internet systems. This launch signals how intertwined SpaceX is becoming in the satellite broadband domain not just as a competitor (Starlink) but also as a key infrastructure provider. For Amazon’s Project Kuiper, the fresh satellite injection helps intensify the race for global broadband coverage.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"Starlink Prepares Regulatory Push Into India Amid Service Launch Plans","summary":"“Most of Starlink’s users worldwide are residential customers in rural areas — people for whom we were often the first real broadband option,” said Urdhwareshe, speaking at the India Mobile Congress (IMC) in New Delhi. “Serving rural users is fundamental to the mission of Starlink,” Urdhwareshe added.","tags":["Broadband","Starlink"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/starlink-prepares-regulatory-push-into-india-amid-service-launch-plans","published_at":"Oct 12, 2025","source":"Satnews","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU2MCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--0d21682ea1265ca8ea01a14a9fbed380fa15f4ee/starlonk.jpeg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eStarlink is advancing efforts to \u003cstrong\u003elaunch satellite communication services in India\u003c/strong\u003e, with senior executives indicating that regulatory and infrastructure groundwork is underway. The announcement suggests SpaceX is positioning to enter one of the world’s largest untapped broadband markets.\u0026nbsp;\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eFor \u003cstrong\u003eSpaceX\u003c/strong\u003e, India represents a \u003cstrong\u003estrategic scale opportunity\u003c/strong\u003e: over \u003cstrong\u003e700 million internet users\u003c/strong\u003e but only partial rural coverage, with per-user data consumption among the world’s highest. The company’s model could \u003cstrong\u003edisrupt fixed-wireless and fiber incumbents like Reliance Jio Fiber and Bharti Airtel\u003c/strong\u003e, whose infrastructure economics limit rural reach. Starlink’s success will hinge on navigating India’s \u003cstrong\u003eforeign-ownership restrictions\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong\u003elocal licensing fees\u003c/strong\u003e, and \u003cstrong\u003epricing sensitivity\u003c/strong\u003e. A commercial rollout would give SpaceX first-mover advantage over late-stage entrants such as \u003cstrong\u003eProject Kuiper.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"Rocket Lab Secures Launch Deals With JAXA and Q-shu Pioneers","summary":null,"tags":["Rocket Lab"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/rocket-lab-secures-launch-deals-with-jaxa-and-q-shu-pioneers","published_at":"Oct 10, 2025","source":"Marketwatch","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU2MiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--0edb859b3ac367a22a372d110a8758f84cf1708d/electron.jpg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eRocket Lab has inked a \u003cstrong\u003etwo‑launch agreement with JAXA\u003c/strong\u003e for missions in \u003cstrong\u003eDecember 2025\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003e2026\u003c/strong\u003e, and separately awarded a \u003cstrong\u003ethree‑launch contract\u003c/strong\u003e with the Institute for Q‑shu Pioneers of Space for their Earth observation constellation. These deals reinforce Rocket Lab’s launch cadence, bolsters revenue pipeline and validates demand ahead of Neutron’s anticipated debut.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"Viasat Wins U.S. Space Force Design Award for Anti-Jam SATCOM System","summary":"Under the initial PTS-G Delivery Order 1 award, Viasat will mature a design for a dual-band X/Ka-band satellite and anchor station architecture.","tags":["Military","Viasat"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/viasat-wins-u-s-space-force-design-award-for-anti-jam-satcom-system","published_at":"Oct 09, 2025","source":"Viasat","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU2MSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--c65f5dcecf7e7f130681956e8c916b7728340eb6/viasat.png","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u0026nbsp;On October 8, 2025, Viasat was selected by the U.S. Space Force as a prime contractor for the \u003cstrong\u003eProtected Tactical SATCOM-Global (PTS-G)\u003c/strong\u003e program, under an initial delivery order to mature the design of a \u003cstrong\u003edual-band (X/Ka) satellite and ground architecture\u003c/strong\u003e. The broader IDIQ contract envisions a \u003cstrong\u003eproliferated GEO constellation\u003c/strong\u003e offering high anti-jamming resilience, with \u003cstrong\u003efirst launches expected around 2028\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eFor Viasat, the award signals movement\u003cstrong\u003e toward government and defense niches\u003c/strong\u003e as Starlink continues to dominate the commercial broadband segment. By focusing on \u003cstrong\u003esecure, resilient communications in contested environments\u003c/strong\u003e, Viasat is positioning itself where \u003cstrong\u003eperformance, security, and compliance\u003c/strong\u003e outweigh raw bandwidth economics, a segment less exposed to SpaceX competition. The contract expands Viasat’s government backlog and may support \u003cstrong\u003ehigher valuation multiples tied to defense-grade recurring revenue\u003c/strong\u003e. For competitors, the decision underscores that \u003cstrong\u003edual-band protected capacity\u003c/strong\u003e is emerging as a baseline requirement in upcoming military SATCOM procurements.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"Stoke Raises $510 Million to Scale Fully Reusable Nova Launch Vehicle","summary":"October 8, 2025 — We’re pleased to announce that as of September 23, we have raised $510 million in Series D funding led by Thomas Tull’s US Innovative Technology Fund (USIT) in conjunction with a $100...","tags":["Stoke Space","Launch"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/stoke-raises-510-million-to-scale-fully-reusable-nova-launch-vehicle","published_at":"Oct 09, 2025","source":"Stokespace","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTU1OSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--a08b58f34de21860b8224b428974f6e1488e60ba/Nova-Rocket_in_Space_left-1-1200x675.jpg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eStoke Space Technologies\u003c/strong\u003e, a Mach33 portfolio company, announced a \u003cstrong\u003e$510 million Series D equity raise\u003c/strong\u003e alongside a \u003cstrong\u003e$100 million debt facility\u003c/strong\u003e, bringing its total capital raised to \u003cstrong\u003e$990 million\u003c/strong\u003e.The funding is earmarked to accelerate development and manufacturing of its \u003cstrong\u003efully reusable Nova launch vehicle\u003c/strong\u003e.\u0026nbsp;\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eThis is among the largest funding rounds to date in the new space launcher sector, signalling investor confidence in reusable architectures beyond SpaceX. For competing startups and incumbent launchers, this raise intensifies the capital arms race and increases pressure to prove reusable systems at scale. Market watchers will now focus on Stoke’s development milestones, test flights, and potential government or commercial launch contracts as metrics of traction. See our updated Stoke Investment Guide on Mach33 Research.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e"}]}
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