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Mach33
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| The Space Finance Group |
{"frequency":"weekly","subject":"Weekly Space Intelligence: Blue Origin’s NG-2 delays, Rocket Lab’s Record Quarter, and a Space Data-Center Race","introduction":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eBlue Origin's \u003cstrong\u003eNG-2 New Glenn\u003c/strong\u003e launch is due soon, unfortunately scrubbed again today due to solar-storm conditions. Mach33’s latest analysis, \u003cem\u003e“After NG-2: How Fast Blue Origin Can Scale New Glenn,”\u003c/em\u003e breaks down what the next two years of cadence really look like. Also this week: \u003cstrong\u003eRocket Lab\u003c/strong\u003e delivers a record quarter, \u003cstrong\u003eAST SpaceMobile \u003c/strong\u003estrengthens its balance sheet, and \u003cstrong\u003eBezos joins the orbital data-center race\u003c/strong\u003e alongside SpaceX and Google.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n","banner":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc2NywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--12f111b15a6cfc0d990875b91b547dbea3e3cf9a/Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20M33_NewsletterBanner%20(7).png","posts":[{"title":"After NG-2: How Fast Blue Origin Can Scale New Glenn","slug":"after-ng-2-how-fast-blue-origin-can-scale-new-glenn","visibility":"public","type":"analysis","card_description":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eNG-2 is a critical test for Blue Origin, but even a clean flight is only the beginning. This analysis models how New Glenn’s launch cadence will really scale through 2027, and why long-term growth depends more on factory output than this single mission outcome.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n","tags":["Launch","Blue Origin"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/analysis/after-ng-2-how-fast-blue-origin-can-scale-new-glenn","published_at":"Nov 12, 2025","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc2NiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--bf5eb067e254bc274406db13b9565b7091c8cc41/new%20glennhd.jpeg","featured_chart_image":null}],"charts":[],"news":[{"title":"Jeff Bezos Says Blue Origin Is Working on Orbital Data Centres","summary":null,"tags":["Blue Origin","Orbital Data Centers"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/jeff-bezos-says-blue-origin-is-working-on-orbital-data-centres","published_at":"Nov 11, 2025","source":"X","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc2OCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--a93dafa0050174caa6cdb21b606478688e68cba7/Screenshot%202025-11-12%20at%2013.49.15.jpg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eJeff Bezos\u003c/strong\u003e, founder of \u003cstrong\u003eBlue Origin\u003c/strong\u003e, stated that the company is \"working on\" \u003cstrong\u003eorbital data centres\u003c/strong\u003e, and noted that “you get 8× more energy in space than on Earth for a given area of solar panel\". The remarks suggest \u003cstrong\u003eBlue Origin\u003c/strong\u003e may be preparing to enter the \u003cstrong\u003ein-orbit computing market\u003c/strong\u003e, placing it alongside \u003cstrong\u003eSpaceX\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eGoogle\u003c/strong\u003e, both of which disclosed in the past week that they are developing \u003cstrong\u003espace-based data-center initiatives\u003c/strong\u003e leveraging orbital solar power and satellite connectivity for large-scale AI compute.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe appear to be entering a \u003cstrong\u003espace data-center race\u003c/strong\u003e, as major technology and aerospace companies converge on the same conclusion: one of the few sustainable long-term solutions to the \u003cstrong\u003eAI energy bottleneck\u003c/strong\u003e may lie beyond Earth.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Damage To Key Deep Space Antenna Adds Pressure Ahead Of Artemis II","summary":"One of the largest antennas in NASA’s Deep Space Network was damaged in September and may be out of service for an extended period.","tags":["Cislunar","NASA"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/damage-to-key-deep-space-antenna-adds-pressure-ahead-of-artemis-ii","published_at":"Nov 11, 2025","source":"Spacenews","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc2OSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--03dd75a0f24830dbcf4fb0c7353c7bc71a6746aa/dss14.jpeg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eNASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory\u003c/strong\u003e confirmed that the \u003cstrong\u003e70-meter DSS-14 antenna\u003c/strong\u003e at the \u003cstrong\u003eGoldstone Deep Space Network\u003c/strong\u003e site has been \u003cstrong\u003eoffline since Sept 16\u003c/strong\u003e after an over-rotation incident damaged its cabling and fire-suppression systems. A \u003cstrong\u003emishap board\u003c/strong\u003e is assessing repairs, and no return date has been given. The loss further strains NASA’s \u003cstrong\u003eDeep Space Network\u003c/strong\u003e, already operating near capacity.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe outage introduces added risk for \u003cstrong\u003eArtemis II\u003c/strong\u003e, which depends on the DSN for Orion spacecraft communications in cislunar space. With only two other 70-meter antennas available, NASA may need to \u003cstrong\u003ereprioritize bandwidth or contract commercial relays\u003c/strong\u003e, highlighting the need for \u003cstrong\u003eexpanded deep-space communications capacity\u003c/strong\u003e before sustained lunar operations begin.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"AST SpaceMobile Reports Q3 Results, Expands Partnerships And Strengthens Balance Sheet","summary":null,"tags":["AST Spacemobile"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/ast-spacemobile-reports-q3-results-expands-partnerships-and-strengthens-balance-sheet","published_at":"Nov 10, 2025","source":"Barrons","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc1MCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--608b9c7d726fdb59994e9969572b0dd250ef7aa9/ASTS.jpg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eAST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS)\u003c/strong\u003e reported \u003cstrong\u003eQ3 2025\u003c/strong\u003e revenue of \u003cstrong\u003e$14.7 million\u003c/strong\u003e, up \u003cstrong\u003e1,236 % year-over-year\u003c/strong\u003e but below analyst estimates of $22 million, with \u003cstrong\u003eEPS of –$0.45\u003c/strong\u003e missing expectations of –$0.27. The company \u003cstrong\u003enarrowed its net loss by 46 % YoY to $122.9 million\u003c/strong\u003e, while \u003cstrong\u003ecash and liquidity rose to $3.2 billion pro forma\u003c/strong\u003e following a \u003cstrong\u003e$1.15 billion convertible-note issuance\u003c/strong\u003e. \u003cstrong\u003eOperating expenses increased 42 % YoY to $94.4 million\u003c/strong\u003e as engineering and production ramped ahead of commercial service. Management reaffirmed \u003cstrong\u003eH2 revenue guidance of $50–75 million\u003c/strong\u003e and confirmed \u003cstrong\u003efive orbital launches by Q1 2026\u003c/strong\u003e and a target of \u003cstrong\u003e45–60 operational satellites by year-end 2026\u003c/strong\u003e. Major business developments included \u003cstrong\u003eover $1 billion in contracted revenue commitments\u003c/strong\u003e, a \u003cstrong\u003e10-year $175 million prepayment deal with Saudi Arabia’s stc Group\u003c/strong\u003e, a \u003cstrong\u003enew U.S. government contract\u003c/strong\u003e, and an \u003cstrong\u003eexpanded Verizon partnership\u003c/strong\u003e covering nationwide service.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor investors, the quarter reflects meaningful \u003cstrong\u003ecommercial de-risking\u003c/strong\u003e despite headline revenue and EPS misses. The strengthened balance sheet, enlarged contract base, and visibility on launch cadence indicate that AST is transitioning from a development-stage venture toward a \u003cstrong\u003ecapital-intensive infrastructure operator\u003c/strong\u003e. While near-term profitability remains distant given elevated cash burn and production costs, \u003cstrong\u003eanalyst upgrades\u003c/strong\u003e and contract momentum suggest rising institutional confidence that AST’s technology and partnerships can support a global direct-to-device communications network at commercial scale.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"U.S. Space Force Budget Shift Delays Next‑Gen Tracking Satellite Awards","summary":"\"When the funding will be authorized, given the shutdown and all the fun there, is a question mark,\" one industry source told Breaking Defense.","tags":["Defense"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/u-s-space-force-budget-shift-delays-next-gen-tracking-satellite-awards","published_at":"Nov 10, 2025","source":"Breakingdefense","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc0OSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--8f148090430c748466f08f71812fc75503d407d8/sda%20tracnhe%203.jpg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eAccording to industry sources cited by Space Development Agency (SDA) and the United States Space Force FY26 budget submission, about \u003cstrong\u003eUS$700 million\u003c/strong\u003e of planned awards for the Tranche 3 missile‑tracking satellite layer (which was to cover ~54 satellites) have been diverted to troop‑pay obligations, delaying tranche milestones originally slated for Oct‑Dec. \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis signals a postponement in growth trajectories for firms in the missile‑warning/space‑sensor value chain and potential contract award timing uncertainty. Companies expecting near‑term cash flows or backlog generation from Tranche 3 may see elongated timelines. The broader implication is increased pressure on suppliers and potential re‑prioritisation of programs within the national security space ecosystem.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Rocket Lab Delivers Record Quarter ","summary":"LONG BEACH, Calif., Nov. 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB) (“Rocket Lab”, “the Company”, “we,” “us,” or “our”), a global...","tags":["Launch","Rocket Lab"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/rocket-lab-delivers-record-quarter","published_at":"Nov 10, 2025","source":"Globenewswire","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc1MSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--887ab20b74d3bbefd352558a52ca4cd69a017ad2/Rocket%20Lab%20logo.jpg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eRocket Lab USA (NASDAQ: RKLB)\u003c/strong\u003e reported \u003cstrong\u003eQ3 2025\u003c/strong\u003e revenue of \u003cstrong\u003e$155 million\u003c/strong\u003e, up \u003cstrong\u003e48 % year-over-year\u003c/strong\u003e and above consensus estimates of $151–152 million. \u003cstrong\u003eEPS of –$0.03\u003c/strong\u003e beat expectations of –$0.10 to –$0.11, while \u003cstrong\u003eGAAP gross margin reached a record 37 %\u003c/strong\u003e (non-GAAP 41.9 %). The company ended the quarter with \u003cstrong\u003eover $1 billion in liquidity\u003c/strong\u003e, boosted by an ATM equity raise. \u003cstrong\u003eBacklog rose to $1.1 billion\u003c/strong\u003e, with \u003cstrong\u003e57 % expected to convert within 12 months\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003elaunch backlog climbing 56 % YoY to $509.7 million\u003c/strong\u003e. Management guided \u003cstrong\u003eQ4 revenue of $170–180 million\u003c/strong\u003e, GAAP gross margin of \u003cstrong\u003e37–39 %\u003c/strong\u003e, and a full-year outlook of \u003cstrong\u003e$592–602 million\u003c/strong\u003e in revenue. Key milestones included securing \u003cstrong\u003e17 new Electron launch contracts\u003c/strong\u003e, completing the \u003cstrong\u003e$325 million GEOST acquisition\u003c/strong\u003e for national-security payloads, and opening \u003cstrong\u003eLaunch Complex 3\u003c/strong\u003e for the upcoming \u003cstrong\u003eNeutron\u003c/strong\u003e rocket.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe narrowing losses and backlog growth suggest improving visibility and customer diversification, particularly as government and defense demand deepens through the GEOST integration. While management subtly acknowledged that \u003cstrong\u003eNeutron’s first launch has shifted to after Q1 2026\u003c/strong\u003e, the program remains a central long-term value driver alongside expanding \u003cstrong\u003ehypersonic (HASTE) testing\u003c/strong\u003e and laser-communications work. \u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Blue Origin delays New Glenn Launch of NASA’s EscaPADE Mars Mission","summary":"Liftoff of the ESCAPADE mission is now scheduled for Wednesday, Nov. 12, at 2:50 p.m. EST (1950 GMT).","tags":["Launch","Blue Origin"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/blue-origin-delays-new-glenn-launch-of-nasa-s-escapade-mars-mission","published_at":"Nov 09, 2025","source":"Space","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc0OCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--d75495c0fe7ffe06cd39baa16937c9d654dbf8b1/new%20glennsadf.jpg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eBlue Origin\u003c/strong\u003e announced on Sunday that its second \u003cstrong\u003eNew Glenn\u003c/strong\u003e mission, carrying \u003cstrong\u003eNASA’s EscaPADE Mars probes\u003c/strong\u003e and a \u003cstrong\u003eViasat Inc. demo payload\u003c/strong\u003e, has been postponed due to \u003cstrong\u003ecumulus-cloud coverage\u003c/strong\u003e and a \u003cstrong\u003eground-systems issue\u003c/strong\u003e detected during the \u003cstrong\u003eT-17-minute readiness poll\u003c/strong\u003e. The new target date was today, \u003cstrong\u003eNov 12\u003c/strong\u003e, but was scrubbed again due to solar storm activity. The company has emphasized the need for optimal recovery conditions as the mission includes an attempted \u003cstrong\u003ebooster landing, \u003c/strong\u003ea key milestone for the New Glenn program.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSentiment around \u003cstrong\u003eBlue Origin\u003c/strong\u003e remains focused less on timing precision and more on \u003cstrong\u003eexecution quality\u003c/strong\u003e. Given the company’s historically slow development cadence, successfully completing this flight and demonstrating booster recovery are far more consequential than a three-day delay. A clean launch and recovery would validate \u003cstrong\u003eNew Glenn’s reusability\u003c/strong\u003e and strengthen confidence in Blue Origin’s ability to compete for commercial and government missions. Conversely, any setback in booster recovery would extend the perception that the company still trails peers in operational maturity.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Vodafone and AST SpaceMobile Launch Joint EU Satellite Constellation with German Operations Centre","summary":"Vodafone and AST SpaceMobile to launch Europe’s main satellite centre in Germany, boosting secure mobile broadband and disaster recovery services....","tags":["AST Spacemobile","DTC","Europe"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/vodafone-and-ast-spacemobile-launch-joint-eu-satellite-constellation-with-german-operations-centre","published_at":"Nov 07, 2025","source":"Globenewswire","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc0NiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--8cb27c06e79ec13e7b5fa52b13f5142d2532e8cf/asts%20voda.jpeg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eAST SpaceMobile\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eVodafone Group PLC\u003c/strong\u003e announced on \u003cstrong\u003eNov 7\u003c/strong\u003e the formation of a \u003cstrong\u003eEuropean joint venture (SatCo)\u003c/strong\u003e headquartered in \u003cstrong\u003eGermany\u003c/strong\u003e to oversee regional operations and spectrum filings for \u003cstrong\u003edirect-to-cell satellite services\u003c/strong\u003e. The entity will manage European regulatory coordination, including a \u003cstrong\u003emid-band ITU filing via Germany\u003c/strong\u003e, and host a \u003cstrong\u003eSatellite Operations Centre\u003c/strong\u003e near \u003cstrong\u003eMunich or Hannover\u003c/strong\u003e. Vodafone, already a \u003cstrong\u003e~2.17 % shareholder\u003c/strong\u003e in AST, will serve as AST’s anchor telecom partner in Europe through this new structure.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe venture formalises \u003cstrong\u003eAST’s European regulatory and operational presence\u003c/strong\u003e, aligning with the EU’s \u003cstrong\u003edigital sovereignty\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003esecure-connectivity\u003c/strong\u003e priorities. For investors, it signals a push to \u003cstrong\u003elocalise data handling, licensing, and compliance\u003c/strong\u003e within Europe, potentially unlocking access to \u003cstrong\u003eEU connectivity funding\u003c/strong\u003e and government contracts. The partnership strengthens AST’s market credibility with a \u003cstrong\u003etier-one operator\u003c/strong\u003e, but profitability will still hinge on \u003cstrong\u003escaling its global satellite network\u003c/strong\u003e, navigating \u003cstrong\u003eEuropean licensing complexities\u003c/strong\u003e, and converting regulatory advantages into sustained commercial uptake.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"EchoStar Corporation Agrees to Sell AWS‑3 Spectrum Licence Portfolio to SpaceX","summary":"With this unpaired AWS-3 spectrum, in addition to the AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses, SpaceX to develop and deploy a next-generation Starlink Direct to Cell constellation.","tags":["SpaceX","DTC","EchoStar"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/echostar-corporation-agrees-to-sell-aws-3-spectrum-licence-portfolio-to-spacex","published_at":"Nov 06, 2025","source":"Echostar","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc0NywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--95cabdfb9a8eb4e47bea4aa166ca436bc7d19b59/echosadg.jpeg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eEchoStar Corporation\u003c/strong\u003e announced a \u003cstrong\u003edefinitive amended agreement\u003c/strong\u003e with \u003cstrong\u003eSpaceX\u003c/strong\u003e to sell its \u003cstrong\u003eunpaired AWS-3 spectrum licences\u003c/strong\u003e for approximately \u003cstrong\u003e$2.6 billion in SpaceX stock\u003c/strong\u003e, valued as of \u003cstrong\u003eSeptember 2025\u003c/strong\u003e. The nationwide licences, part of \u003cstrong\u003e3GPP Band 70n (1695–1710 MHz uplink)\u003c/strong\u003e, are being divested as part of EchoStar’s broader \u003cstrong\u003espectrum monetisation strategy\u003c/strong\u003e. The transaction builds on a prior agreement reached between the companies in \u003cstrong\u003eSeptember 2025\u003c/strong\u003e and consolidates SpaceX’s control of low- and mid-band spectrum assets relevant to future terrestrial and satellite-linked communications services.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis deal marks a \u003cstrong\u003estrategic expansion of SpaceX’s spectrum footprint\u003c/strong\u003e that could underpin both \u003cstrong\u003eStarlink’s terrestrial backhaul integration\u003c/strong\u003e and potential \u003cstrong\u003ehybrid mobile-satellite network offerings\u003c/strong\u003e. Acquiring nationwide AWS-3 uplink rights provides flexibility for \u003cstrong\u003edirect-to-cell, enterprise mobility, and IoT connectivity\u003c/strong\u003e, tightening SpaceX’s vertical control over infrastructure layers traditionally reliant on third-party carriers. For EchoStar, the all-stock transaction represents a \u003cstrong\u003eliquidity and valuation play\u003c/strong\u003e, monetising non-core assets while preserving exposure to SpaceX’s equity upside.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"}]}
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