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Mach33
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| The Space Finance Group |
{"frequency":"weekly","subject":"Weekly Space Intelligence: Mach33 DTC Model goes Live, New Glenn reusability breakthrough, Taiwan to manufacture satellites","introduction":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eThis week, we launch our new Direct-to-Cell models: an open-source global TAM based on coverage-gap economics, and a premium model, including the supply-side, that forecasts how much revenue SpaceX and ASTS can actually serve. In industry news, Rocket Lab secures another hypersonic win, Blue Origin commits to high-cadence New Glenn operations after successful NG-2 booster landing, Taiwan accelerates into full-satellite manufacturing, and SpaceX’s updated HLS schedule reshapes the Artemis timeline.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n","banner":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTgxMiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--4e0f8b4aa619ef0086be96c7bffeb0b84b1459e9/dtcbanner.png","posts":[{"title":"How Much Revenue Can SpaceX and ASTS Really Make From DTC? — The Full Mach33 Premium DTC Model","slug":"how-much-revenue-can-spacex-and-asts-really-make-from-dtc-the-full-mach33-premium-dtc-model","visibility":"paid","type":"analysis","card_description":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eThe premium model applies real-world constellation physics to the $37B DTC TAM to show how much revenue SpaceX and ASTS can actually serve. A full supply-side Monte Carlo reveals the potential performance of the two architectures, and projects 2030 DTC coverage gap revenue.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n","tags":["SpaceX","AST Spacemobile","DTC","Globalstar","Model","Starlink"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/analysis/how-much-revenue-can-spacex-and-asts-really-make-from-dtc-the-full-mach33-premium-dtc-model","published_at":"Nov 19, 2025","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTgwMSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--9798df548588b08cfb1bf2a19c799bdfdaa82a77/DTCprem2.png","featured_chart_image":null},{"title":"$37B DTC Coverage-Gap TAM by 2030 — Mach33’s Open-Source DTC Demand Model","slug":"37b-dtc-coverage-gap-tam-by-2030-mach33-s-open-source-dtc-demand-model","visibility":"restricted","type":"analysis","card_description":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eMach33’s open-source model estimates a $37B consumer Direct-to-Cell market in 2030, driven primarily by large middle-income regions. Modelling on a per-country basis, the analysis shows that dropout prevalence, not income, is the dominant driver of consumer DTC demand.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n","tags":["SpaceX","AST Spacemobile","DTC","Globalstar","Model","Starlink"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/analysis/37b-dtc-coverage-gap-tam-by-2030-mach33-s-open-source-dtc-demand-model","published_at":"Nov 19, 2025","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTc5OSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--cefb12dd89edebec8edd816830cdd25e16c54d3b/tamthumb2.png","featured_chart_image":null}],"charts":[],"news":[{"title":"Rocket Lab Completes HASTE Hypersonic Launch for US Defence Agencies","summary":"Rocket Lab today announced it successfully launched a suborbital mission with its HASTE launch vehicle for the DIU and MDA....","tags":["Launch","Defense","Rocket Lab"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/rocket-lab-completes-haste-hypersonic-launch-for-us-defence-agencies","published_at":"Nov 18, 2025","source":"Globenewswire","thumbnail":null,"commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eRocket Lab announced a \u003cstrong\u003esuccessful suborbital launch of its HASTE vehicle on 18 Nov 2025 \u003c/strong\u003efrom Wallops Island, Virginia on behalf of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and the Missile Defense Agency (MDA). The flight deployed a Johns Hopkins APL‑developed primary payload along with multiple secondary industry/government payloads under the HyCAT programme, marking the sixth HASTE mission since 2023 and occurring within 14 months of contract signing. \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis reinforces \u003cstrong\u003eRocket Lab’s expanding role beyond small‑satellite orbital launches into the hypersonics/defence testing segment.\u003c/strong\u003e The rapid contract‑to‑flight timeline enhances its value proposition for time‑sensitive government missions and could support higher margin “specialised launch” business, complementing its commercial launch services revenue stream.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Taiwan Advances “Full Satellite” Capabilities to Enter Global Space Supply Chain","summary":"As the global space race intensifies, Taiwan's ambitions in orbit are evolving rapidly. What began as an industry focused primarily on supplying components is now advancing toward full satellite system design and integration. The Taiwan Space Agency (TASA) has been central to this shift. Over more than three decades, the agency has progressed from purchasing foreign-built satellites to absorbing external technologies and, eventually, to designing spacecraft independently—an effort to translate Taiwan's strengths in semiconductors and ICT into a...","tags":["Taiwan"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/taiwan-advances-full-satellite-capabilities-to-enter-global-space-supply-chain","published_at":"Nov 17, 2025","source":"Digitimes","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTgwNywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--a28a9522d34d77cd093baec51b181b15313eef82/taiwan.png","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eTaiwan’s Space Agency is reportedly \u003cstrong\u003eshifting from component‑supply towards full satellite design and integration\u003c/strong\u003e, leveraging Taiwan’s established semiconductor and manufacturing base to position itself in the global space supply chain. The report suggests Taiwanese firms may now bid for end‑to‑end satellites rather than only chips or subsystems, potentially opening opportunities in Asia Pacific.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFrom a sector vantage this development suggests new entrants may alter cost structures and competitive dynamics in satellite manufacturing globally. For incumbents, particularly Western manufacturers, \u003cstrong\u003ethis shift could compress margins and accelerate outsourcing of assembly/integration to high‑volume low‑cost regions\u003c/strong\u003e, necessitating strategic re‑thinking of manufacturing footprints.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Blue Origin Targets Well Over A Dozen New Glenn Launches In 2026","summary":"“There’s never been such a high demand for launch as there is right now.”…","tags":["Launch","Blue Origin"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/blue-origin-targets-well-over-a-dozen-new-glenn-launches-in-2026","published_at":"Nov 17, 2025","source":"Arstechnica","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTgwOSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--ada5687c5c39619371c4ba53828f201ef28e8e60/new%20glennsadf.jpg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eBlue Origin chief executive \u003cstrong\u003eDave Limp\u003c/strong\u003e told \u003cstrong\u003eArs Technica\u003c/strong\u003e that the company is building enough hardware to support \u003cstrong\u003ewell above a dozen\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eNew Glenn\u003c/strong\u003e launches in \u003cstrong\u003e2026\u003c/strong\u003e, with an upper bound of \u003cstrong\u003e24 missions\u003c/strong\u003e. Limp said New Glenn’s second flight has validated key manufacturing and operations processes, with second stage production currently at \u003cstrong\u003eone unit per month\u003c/strong\u003e and ramping upward. The company has recovered the most recent New Glenn booster and is completing another first stage that can be used if refurbishment timelines slip. Blue Origin also confirmed its next New Glenn payload will be the \u003cstrong\u003eBlue Moon Mark 1\u003c/strong\u003e lunar lander, targeted for \u003cstrong\u003eQ1 2026, \u003c/strong\u003ewith word that the NG-2 booster will be reused then also. \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eThis update signals that Blue Origin is entering a scale up phase long viewed as its primary strategic bottleneck. \u003cstrong\u003eAchieving even the lower end of the stated range would position New Glenn as the second highest mass to orbit launcher behind Falcon 9\u003c/strong\u003e, altering competitive dynamics in national security launch and large constellation deployment. The emphasis on second stage throughput and BE 4 and BE 3U engine manufacturing shows where near term execution risk sits. If Blue Origin sustains this manufacturing trajectory, it could become a credible counterweight to SpaceX in heavy lift markets for the first time.\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"SpaceX’s New Tentative HLS Schedule Leaked","summary":"A leaked internal document suggests SpaceX could miss NASA’s Artemis 3 deadline by over a year.","tags":["SpaceX","Cislunar"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/spacex-s-new-tentative-hls-schedule-leaked","published_at":"Nov 16, 2025","source":"Gizmodo","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTgxMCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--c9e297fd99189c18104dc406bfb245d52d024cb1/hls%20.jpeg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eAn internal document obtained by analysts and reported by Politico Pro space newsletter outlines updated milestones for SpaceX’s Starship HLS lunar-lander program: a propellant-transfer demonstration is targeted for \u003cstrong\u003eJune 2026\u003c/strong\u003e, an uncrewed lunar landing for \u003cstrong\u003eJune 2027\u003c/strong\u003e, followed by a crewed lunar landing in \u003cstrong\u003eSeptember 2028\u003c/strong\u003e. The revised timeline represents a shift from earlier mid-2027 objective dates set by NASA for the Artemis III mission.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eThis schedule revision raises clear implications for SpaceX’s moon-architecture monetization timeline and risk profile. \u003cstrong\u003eThe push of the crewed landing into late 2028 signals additional development, regulatory and launch-cadence risk and may affect contract milestones and contingent revenue for the Artemis programme.\u003c/strong\u003e If SpaceX fails to meet these dates it could open the door wider for competing programmes and increase buyer leverage in lunar-lander services contracting.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Blue Origin’s New Glenn Achieves First Successful Booster Landing on Second Flight","summary":"Relive a big part of New Glenn's big day.","tags":["Launch","Blue Origin","Mars","Rocket Lab"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/blue-origin-s-new-glenn-achieves-first-successful-booster-landing-on-second-flight","published_at":"Nov 13, 2025","source":"Space","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTgwNiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--e68169bb7e28c55c31af826f21af9e496bd246f2/new%20glenn%20landing.jpeg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eBlue Origin’s New Glenn Achieves First Successful Booster Landing On Second Flight\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The \u003cstrong\u003eBlue Origin\u003c/strong\u003e heavy-lift rocket \u003cstrong\u003eNew Glenn\u003c/strong\u003e launched a pair of \u003cstrong\u003eNASA-funded Mars probe spacecraft\u003c/strong\u003e on \u003cstrong\u003eNovember 13\u003c/strong\u003e and successfully \u003cstrong\u003elanded the first-stage booster\u003c/strong\u003e on a barge at sea. The mission confirmed Blue Origin’s \u003cstrong\u003ereusability roadmap\u003c/strong\u003e and delivered the twin \u003cstrong\u003e“ESCAPADE” spacecraft\u003c/strong\u003e (developed by \u003cstrong\u003eRocket Lab\u003c/strong\u003e) en route to Mars.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe fact that Blue Origin \u003cstrong\u003enailed the booster landing on only its second flight\u003c/strong\u003e is a major technical achievement that validates its \u003cstrong\u003eslow-but-steady development strategy\u003c/strong\u003e. The success demonstrates that New Glenn’s design is maturing quickly and establishes a foundation for a \u003cstrong\u003erapid increase in launch cadence starting in 2026\u003c/strong\u003e. It also enhances Blue Origin’s competitive positioning against SpaceX and strengthens its credibility for \u003cstrong\u003ehigh-margin government and commercial missions\u003c/strong\u003e, supporting a path toward sustainable economics in the heavy-lift launch market.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Amazon Rebrands Project Kuiper As Amazon Leo","summary":"Amazon Leo is a simple nod to the low Earth orbit satellite constellation that powers the network.","tags":["Amazon LEO","Amazon Kuiper","Broadband"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/amazon-rebrands-project-kuiper-as-amazon-leo","published_at":"Nov 13, 2025","source":"Aboutamazon","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTgwOCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--7b956cbc18247ac59b3bff859bc39458a5c8ed24/amazon%20LEO.jpg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eAmazon has officially renamed \u003cstrong\u003eProject Kuiper\u003c/strong\u003e to \u003cstrong\u003eAmazon Leo\u003c/strong\u003e, establishing a permanent commercial brand for its low Earth orbit broadband network. The rebrand follows a year in which Amazon completed six launches and placed \u003cstrong\u003emore than 150 satellites\u003c/strong\u003e into orbit. The company highlighted progress on high-volume satellite production, gigabit-class phased-array terminals and early commercial partnerships including \u003cstrong\u003eJetBlue\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong\u003eL3Harris\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong\u003eDIRECTV Latin America\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong\u003eSky Brasil\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eNBN Co\u003c/strong\u003e. Amazon says the new identity is a direct reference to the LEO architecture that underpins the network’s design.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eFor investors, the change signals a transition from R\u0026amp;D positioning to commercial execution as Amazon prepares for service rollout. The shift strengthens competitive framing against \u003cstrong\u003eStarlink\u003c/strong\u003e, emphasizing Amazon’s manufacturing scale, regulatory momentum and partner pipeline. The brand consolidation also clarifies Amazon’s long term satellite strategy for capital-markets audiences evaluating its non AWS growth vectors. The program’s execution pace and customer traction will be the critical indicators of whether Amazon Leo can narrow the performance and deployment gap with Starlink.\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Exolaunch Wins UAE Contract To Deploy PHI‑1 Satellite Using SpaceX Rideshare","summary":"Exolaunch announces that it has been awarded a launch contract by the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC)…","tags":["Launch"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/exolaunch-wins-uae-contract-to-deploy-phi-1-satellite-using-spacex-rideshare","published_at":"Nov 13, 2025","source":"Spacetech Gulf","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTgxMSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--92ac5d74e9420afc9cf9ae403711344c162fc387/exoalaunch.jpeg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eExolaunch, a German-based mission-management and rideshare integration provider, announced a contract award from the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC) in the United Arab Emirates to deliver the PHI‑1 12U satellite plus a companion EnduroSat‑built HCT‑Sat2 on the upcoming SpaceX Falcon 9 Transporter‑15 rideshare mission scheduled no earlier than November 19.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor budget‑sensitive smallsat missions wishing to access LEO capability, the \u003cstrong\u003econtract confirms Exolaunch’s role as a rideshare integrator in a rising Middle‑East launch market\u003c/strong\u003e. The deal highlights growing demand in the Gulf region for satellite services and shows how mounting demand for LEO access can create arbitrage opportunities for non‑U.S. integrators. \u003cstrong\u003eFor SpaceX the rideshare model continues to drive utilization of Falcon 9\u003c/strong\u003e and can contribute non‑core‑business cash flow, supporting launch cadence economics.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"}]}
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