|
|
This week, we launch our new Direct-to-Cell models: an open-source global TAM based on coverage-gap economics, and a premium model, including the supply-side, that forecasts how much revenue SpaceX and ASTS can actually serve. In industry news, Rocket Lab secures another hypersonic win, Blue Origin commits to high-cadence New Glenn operations after successful NG-2 booster landing, Taiwan accelerates into full-satellite manufacturing, and SpaceX’s updated HLS schedule reshapes the Artemis timeline.
|
|
| Industry News |
|
|
|
|
Rocket Lab announced a successful suborbital launch of its HASTE vehicle on 18 Nov 2025 from Wallops Island, Virginia on behalf of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and the Missile Defense Agency (MDA). The flight deployed a Johns Hopkins APL‑developed primary payload along with multiple secondary industry/government payloads under the HyCAT programme, marking the sixth HASTE mission since 2023 and occurring within 14 months of contract signing.
This reinforces Rocket Lab’s expanding role beyond small‑satellite orbital launches into the hypersonics/defence testing segment. The rapid contract‑to‑flight timeline enhances its value proposition for time‑sensitive government missions and could support higher margin “specialised launch” business, complementing its commercial launch services revenue stream.
Read More →
|
|
|
|
Taiwan’s Space Agency is reportedly shifting from component‑supply towards full satellite design and integration, leveraging Taiwan’s established semiconductor and manufacturing base to position itself in the global space supply chain. The report suggests Taiwanese firms may now bid for end‑to‑end satellites rather than only chips or subsystems, potentially opening opportunities in Asia Pacific.
From a sector vantage this development suggests new entrants may alter cost structures and competitive dynamics in satellite manufacturing globally. For incumbents, particularly Western manufacturers, this shift could compress margins and accelerate outsourcing of assembly/integration to high‑volume low‑cost regions, necessitating strategic re‑thinking of manufacturing footprints.
Read More →
|
|
|
|
Blue Origin chief executive Dave Limp told Ars Technica that the company is building enough hardware to support well above a dozen New Glenn launches in 2026, with an upper bound of 24 missions. Limp said New Glenn’s second flight has validated key manufacturing and operations processes, with second stage production currently at one unit per month and ramping upward. The company has recovered the most recent New Glenn booster and is completing another first stage that can be used if refurbishment timelines slip. Blue Origin also confirmed its next New Glenn payload will be the Blue Moon Mark 1 lunar lander, targeted for Q1 2026, with word that the NG-2 booster will be reused then also.
This update signals that Blue Origin is entering a scale up phase long viewed as its primary strategic bottleneck. Achieving even the lower end of the stated range would position New Glenn as the second highest mass to orbit launcher behind Falcon 9, altering competitive dynamics in national security launch and large constellation deployment. The emphasis on second stage throughput and BE 4 and BE 3U engine manufacturing shows where near term execution risk sits. If Blue Origin sustains this manufacturing trajectory, it could become a credible counterweight to SpaceX in heavy lift markets for the first time.
Read More →
|
|
|
|
An internal document obtained by analysts and reported by Politico Pro space newsletter outlines updated milestones for SpaceX’s Starship HLS lunar-lander program: a propellant-transfer demonstration is targeted for June 2026, an uncrewed lunar landing for June 2027, followed by a crewed lunar landing in September 2028. The revised timeline represents a shift from earlier mid-2027 objective dates set by NASA for the Artemis III mission. This schedule revision raises clear implications for SpaceX’s moon-architecture monetization timeline and risk profile. The push of the crewed landing into late 2028 signals additional development, regulatory and launch-cadence risk and may affect contract milestones and contingent revenue for the Artemis programme. If SpaceX fails to meet these dates it could open the door wider for competing programmes and increase buyer leverage in lunar-lander services contracting.
Read More →
|
|
|
|
Blue Origin’s New Glenn Achieves First Successful Booster Landing On Second Flight The Blue Origin heavy-lift rocket New Glenn launched a pair of NASA-funded Mars probe spacecraft on November 13 and successfully landed the first-stage booster on a barge at sea. The mission confirmed Blue Origin’s reusability roadmap and delivered the twin “ESCAPADE” spacecraft (developed by Rocket Lab) en route to Mars.
The fact that Blue Origin nailed the booster landing on only its second flight is a major technical achievement that validates its slow-but-steady development strategy. The success demonstrates that New Glenn’s design is maturing quickly and establishes a foundation for a rapid increase in launch cadence starting in 2026. It also enhances Blue Origin’s competitive positioning against SpaceX and strengthens its credibility for high-margin government and commercial missions, supporting a path toward sustainable economics in the heavy-lift launch market.
Read More →
|
|
|
|
Amazon has officially renamed Project Kuiper to Amazon Leo, establishing a permanent commercial brand for its low Earth orbit broadband network. The rebrand follows a year in which Amazon completed six launches and placed more than 150 satellites into orbit. The company highlighted progress on high-volume satellite production, gigabit-class phased-array terminals and early commercial partnerships including JetBlue, L3Harris, DIRECTV Latin America, Sky Brasil and NBN Co. Amazon says the new identity is a direct reference to the LEO architecture that underpins the network’s design.
For investors, the change signals a transition from R&D positioning to commercial execution as Amazon prepares for service rollout. The shift strengthens competitive framing against Starlink, emphasizing Amazon’s manufacturing scale, regulatory momentum and partner pipeline. The brand consolidation also clarifies Amazon’s long term satellite strategy for capital-markets audiences evaluating its non AWS growth vectors. The program’s execution pace and customer traction will be the critical indicators of whether Amazon Leo can narrow the performance and deployment gap with Starlink.
Read More →
|
|
|
|
Exolaunch, a German-based mission-management and rideshare integration provider, announced a contract award from the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC) in the United Arab Emirates to deliver the PHI‑1 12U satellite plus a companion EnduroSat‑built HCT‑Sat2 on the upcoming SpaceX Falcon 9 Transporter‑15 rideshare mission scheduled no earlier than November 19.
For budget‑sensitive smallsat missions wishing to access LEO capability, the contract confirms Exolaunch’s role as a rideshare integrator in a rising Middle‑East launch market. The deal highlights growing demand in the Gulf region for satellite services and shows how mounting demand for LEO access can create arbitrage opportunities for non‑U.S. integrators. For SpaceX the rideshare model continues to drive utilization of Falcon 9 and can contribute non‑core‑business cash flow, supporting launch cadence economics.
Read More →
|
|
|
| Mach33 |
| The Space Finance Group |
|
|
|