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This week we model when orbital power for compute becomes cheaper than terrestrial datacenters. Meanwhile AST prepares BlueBird-6 for December, SpaceX investigates a Booster 18 test failure, Blue Origin rolls out major New Glenn upgrades including the new 9×4 heavy variant, Rocket Lab demonstrates record cadence, and Elon Musk outlines a 300-500 GW orbital compute deployment rate.
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| Latest Analysis |
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| Nov 26, 2025 |
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Orbital Compute Energy will be cheaper than Earth by 2030
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StarlinkOrbital Data CentersSpaceX
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Space-based power for AI compute is closer to economic parity than many think. In this week’s analysis, we break down the true $/W of orbital power systems, compare them directly to terrestrial datacenters, and show why mass-optimized HEO architectures could already compete on cost at Starship-era launch prices.
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| Industry News |
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AST SpaceMobile announced that its next‑generation satellite BlueBird‑6 will launch on December 15 from India’s Satish Dhawan Space Center. The satellite features a phased‑array nearly 2 ,400 sq ft in size (more than triple previous BlueBird satellites and the largest communication satellite to date) and is aimed at delivering direct smart‑phone connectivity in a planned campaign culminating in 45–60 satellites in orbit by end‑2026.
For investors this development highlights AST SpaceMobile’s escalation in ambition and scale‑up timeline, increasing the competitive pressure it poses to the satellite‑to‑phone connectivity incumbent, Starlink. The larger satellite size may improve economics of direct‑to‑device connectivity and strengthen AST’s positioning when commercial services begin.
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SpaceX confirmed that Booster 18, a next-generation V3 Starship booster, experienced an anomaly during gas-system pressure testing at Starbase on Nov 21. The company stated that no propellant was on the vehicle and engines had not yet been installed, reducing the severity of the incident and preventing injuries as personnel remained at a safe distance. Visual footage showed outward buckling of the LOX tank during pre-structural proof testing, consistent with a structural failure initiated by over-pressurization in the gas-management system. SpaceX has paused operations at the site while teams investigate and prepare a safe re-entry plan.
For investors, the event highlights the engineering difficulty of validating V3-class propellant and pressurization systems, which incorporate new structural loads and manufacturing changes intended to support higher performance and reusability. The failure is likely to cause only minor schedule impact, given the absence of engines and SpaceX’s habit of building multiple boosters in parallel. It also fits SpaceX’s fail-fast and instrument-heavy test philosophy, which historically trades short-term setbacks for rapid learning cycles and long-term acceleration of the Starship program. The outcome will influence near-term expectations around Starship flight cadence, V3 reliability, and the broader roadmap toward lunar and Mars missions.
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Blue Origin announced a suite of performance upgrades for New Glenn, increasing total first stage BE 4 thrust from 3.9 million to 4.5 million lbf and boosting upper stage BE 3U thrust from 320,000 to 400,000 lbf over the next few missions. The company is introducing subcooled propellant operations, a reusable fairing, lower cost tank designs, and a higher performing reusable thermal protection system to support higher cadence and faster booster turnaround. Blue Origin also revealed New Glenn 9x4, a super heavy class configuration that can carry more than 70 metric tons to low Earth orbit, over 14 metric tons direct to geosynchronous orbit, and more than 20 metric tons to trans lunar injection. The existing 7x2 and new 9x4 variants will operate concurrently to serve missions that include mega constellations, lunar and deep space exploration, and national security contracts such as Golden Dome.
The upgrades and the 9x4 announcement move New Glenn from a single vehicle program toward a family architecture that more directly mirrors SpaceX with Falcon class and Starship class offerings. Higher thrust levels and a larger 8.7 meter fairing improve competitiveness for heavy and complex payloads, including large batches of broadband satellites and defense missions where volume and mass margins drive economics. The concurrent 7x2 and 9x4 strategy provides pricing and performance segmentation that could help Blue Origin capture both constellation deployment and high value government missions. If Blue Origin can translate this technical roadmap into sustained launch cadence, it becomes a more credible challenger in the 2030s in the launch segments that investors currently price as heavily skewed toward SpaceX.
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Rocket Lab set a new annual record for its Electron small launch vehicle, reaching 18 Electron launches in 2025 after two missions within roughly 48 hours from different hemispheres. The first mission was a HASTE suborbital flight from Wallops Island, Virginia for the Defense Innovation Unit and Missile Defense Agency, carrying multiple technology payloads for missile defense applications. A follow on Electron mission, Follow My Speed, then lifted off from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand for a confidential commercial customer in the early hours of Nov 21 local time. Rocket Lab noted this is the third time in twelve months that it has executed two launches within a two day window.
Eighteen successful Electron launches in a single year show that Rocket Lab has firmly established reliable cadence, removing any doubt about its ability to execute frequent, on-schedule missions. But cadence alone doesn’t move Rocket Lab beyond its current role as a high-quality, niche small-launch provider. The real unlock now is proving meaningful upmass with Neutron. Until Neutron demonstrates lift capacity and routine reusability at scale, Rocket Lab remains constrained to secondary and tactically oriented missions. Strong Electron performance does, however, build operational credibility heading into Neutron’s debut, now slated for Q2'26, positioning Rocket Lab to make the case that it can graduate from small-launch specialist to a true competitor in the medium-lift market.
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Elon Musk stated that Starship could deliver 300 gigawatts to 500 gigawatts per year of solar-powered AI compute satellites into orbit, framing annual deployment rate rather than cumulative capacity as the defining breakthrough. Musk noted that 300 gigawatts per year of orbital compute would exceed the average 500 gigawatt electricity consumption of the United States every two years, positioning space-based compute as an economy-scale infrastructure category. He added that terrestrial solar manufacturing already exceeds 1,500 gigawatts per year, placing chip production and packaging rather than launch or power hardware as the primary bottleneck. Musk argued that the solution requires the Tesla Terafab and eventually lunar production to reach 100 terawatts per year scale.
A credible path to 300 gigawatts per year would imply tens of thousands of tons launched annually, materially altering valuation frameworks for SpaceX’s launch, Starlink infrastructure, and prospective orbital compute divisions. The shift in bottleneck from lift capacity to semiconductor and module supply highlights where capital constraints and competitive moats are likely to form. Musk’s mention of lunar manufacturing also signals the company’s intent to position Starship and related infrastructure as the enabling layer for post terrestrial industrial expansion.
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| Mach33 |
| The Space Finance Group |
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