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Mach33
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| The Space Finance Group |
{"frequency":"weekly","subject":"Weekly Space Intelligence: Blue Origin Upsizes New Glenn, Musk Targets 300+ GW, M33 models Orbital $/W","introduction":"\u003carticle class=\"text-token-text-primary w-full focus:outline-none [--shadow-height:45px] has-data-writing-block:pointer-events-none has-data-writing-block:-mt-(--shadow-height) has-data-writing-block:pt-(--shadow-height) [\u0026amp;:has([data-writing-block])\u0026gt;*]:pointer-events-auto scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]\" dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"-1\" data-turn-id=\"request-6925ceb2-6f70-8331-a254-c5855eb1e384-57\" data-testid=\"conversation-turn-216\" data-scroll-anchor=\"true\" data-turn=\"assistant\"\u003e\r\n\u003cdiv class=\"text-base my-auto mx-auto pb-10 [--thread-content-margin:--spacing(4)] thread-sm:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(6)] thread-lg:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(16)] px-(--thread-content-margin)\"\u003e\r\n\u003cdiv class=\"[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] thread-lg:[--thread-content-max-width:48rem] mx-auto max-w-(--thread-content-max-width) flex-1 group/turn-messages focus-visible:outline-hidden relative flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col agent-turn\" tabindex=\"-1\"\u003e\r\n\u003cdiv class=\"flex max-w-full flex-col grow\"\u003e\r\n\u003cdiv class=\"min-h-8 text-message relative flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 text-start break-words whitespace-normal [.text-message+\u0026amp;]:mt-1\" dir=\"auto\" data-message-author-role=\"assistant\" data-message-id=\"37ba8198-c10e-4043-8941-d27c15d28ce8\" data-message-model-slug=\"gpt-5-1\"\u003e\r\n\u003cdiv class=\"flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden first:pt-[1px]\"\u003e\r\n\u003cdiv class=\"markdown prose dark:prose-invert w-full break-words dark markdown-new-styling\"\u003e\r\n\u003cp data-start=\"90\" data-end=\"505\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"\u003e\u003cstrong data-start=\"90\" data-end=\"189\"\u003eThis week we model when orbital power for compute becomes cheaper than terrestrial datacenters.\u003c/strong\u003e Meanwhile \u003cstrong data-start=\"200\" data-end=\"240\" data-is-only-node=\"\"\u003eAST prepares BlueBird-6 for December\u003c/strong\u003e, SpaceX investigates a \u003cstrong data-start=\"264\" data-end=\"291\"\u003eBooster 18 test failure\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong data-start=\"293\" data-end=\"308\"\u003eBlue Origin\u003c/strong\u003e rolls out major New Glenn upgrades including the new \u003cstrong data-start=\"362\" data-end=\"383\"\u003e9\u0026times;4 heavy variant\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong data-start=\"385\" data-end=\"399\"\u003eRocket Lab\u003c/strong\u003e demonstrates record cadence, and \u003cstrong data-start=\"433\" data-end=\"446\"\u003eElon Musk\u003c/strong\u003e outlines a \u003cstrong data-start=\"458\" data-end=\"472\"\u003e300-500 GW\u003c/strong\u003e orbital compute deployment rate.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003c/div\u003e\r\n\u003c/div\u003e\r\n\u003c/div\u003e\r\n\u003c/div\u003e\r\n\u003cdiv class=\"mt-3 w-full empty:hidden\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e\r\n\u003c/div\u003e\r\n\u003c/div\u003e\r\n\u003c/article\u003e","banner":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTg3NiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--5136c3ce56295f99d76ca5bf1134514d1b9b23ee/Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20M33_NewsletterBanner%20(1).png","posts":[{"title":"Orbital Compute Energy will be cheaper than Earth by 2030","slug":"orbital-compute-energy-will-be-cheaper-than-earth-by-2030","visibility":"public","type":"analysis","card_description":"\u003cp\u003eSpace-based power for AI compute is closer to economic parity than many think. In this week\u0026rsquo;s analysis, we break down the true $/W of orbital power systems, compare them directly to terrestrial datacenters, and show why mass-optimized HEO architectures could already compete on cost at Starship-era launch prices.\u003c/p\u003e","tags":["SpaceX","Orbital Data Centers","Starlink"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/analysis/orbital-compute-energy-will-be-cheaper-than-earth-by-2030","published_at":"Nov 26, 2025","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTg3NCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--9ef5b0a473acdaa1aa6641fd08a76d19d506f210/Computeit.png","featured_chart_image":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTg3NywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--887f20b363fdf73d8e104e55903629f840c29d4c/chart_121.png"}],"charts":[],"news":[{"title":"AST SpaceMobile Sets December Launch Date For BlueBird‑6","summary":"Los Angeles CA (SPX) Nov 25, 2025 - \nAST SpaceMobile has confirmed BlueBird 6, a U.S. licensed satellite, will launch on December 15 from Satish Dhawan Space Center in India. This satellite represents the company's first next-generatio","tags":["Launch","AST Spacemobile","DTC"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/ast-spacemobile-sets-december-launch-date-for-bluebird-6","published_at":"Nov 25, 2025","source":"Spacedaily","thumbnail":null,"commentary":"\u003cp\u003eAST SpaceMobile announced that its next‑generation satellite BlueBird‑6 will launch on \u003cstrong data-start=\"1166\" data-end=\"1181\"\u003eDecember 15\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e from India\u0026rsquo;s Satish Dhawan Space Center.\u003c/strong\u003e\u0026nbsp;The satellite features a phased‑array nearly \u003cstrong data-start=\"1308\" data-end=\"1324\"\u003e2 ,400 sq ft\u003c/strong\u003e in size (more than triple previous BlueBird satellites and the largest communication satellite to date) and is aimed at delivering direct smart‑phone connectivity in a planned campaign culminating in 45\u0026ndash;60 satellites in orbit by end‑2026.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr data-start=\"1555\" data-end=\"1558\"\u003eFor investors this development highlights AST SpaceMobile\u0026rsquo;s escalation in ambition and scale‑up timeline, increasing the competitive pressure it poses to the satellite‑to‑phone connectivity incumbent, Starlink. \u003cstrong\u003eThe larger satellite size\u0026nbsp;may improve economics of direct‑to‑device connectivity\u003c/strong\u003e and strengthen AST\u0026rsquo;s positioning when commercial services begin.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"title":"SpaceX’s Booster 18 Fails During Gas-System Pressure Test At Starbase","summary":null,"tags":["SpaceX","Launch"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/spacex-s-booster-18-fails-during-gas-system-pressure-test-at-starbase","published_at":"Nov 21, 2025","source":"X","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTg3MiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--67ccb726874ce367d1fcea4acb876652c5c8882c/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2016.02.38.jpg","commentary":"\u003cp data-start=\"90\" data-end=\"767\"\u003e\u003cstrong data-start=\"90\" data-end=\"100\"\u003eSpaceX\u003c/strong\u003e confirmed that \u003cstrong data-start=\"116\" data-end=\"130\"\u003eBooster 18\u003c/strong\u003e, a next-generation \u003cstrong data-start=\"150\" data-end=\"165\"\u003eV3 Starship\u003c/strong\u003e booster, experienced an \u003cstrong data-start=\"190\" data-end=\"201\" data-is-only-node=\"\"\u003eanomaly\u003c/strong\u003e during gas-system pressure testing at \u003cstrong data-start=\"240\" data-end=\"252\"\u003eStarbase\u003c/strong\u003e on Nov 21. The company stated that \u003cstrong data-start=\"288\" data-end=\"324\"\u003eno propellant was on the vehicle\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong data-start=\"329\" data-end=\"367\"\u003eengines had not yet been installed\u003c/strong\u003e, reducing the severity of the incident and preventing injuries as personnel remained at a safe distance. Visual footage showed \u003cstrong data-start=\"495\" data-end=\"531\"\u003eoutward buckling of the LOX tank\u003c/strong\u003e during pre-structural proof testing, consistent with a structural failure initiated by over-pressurization in the gas-management system. SpaceX has paused operations at the site while teams investigate and prepare a safe re-entry plan.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp data-start=\"769\" data-end=\"1532\"\u003eFor investors, the event highlights the engineering difficulty of validating \u003cstrong data-start=\"846\" data-end=\"896\"\u003eV3-class propellant and pressurization systems\u003c/strong\u003e, which incorporate new structural loads and manufacturing changes intended to support higher performance and reusability. The failure is likely to cause \u003cstrong data-start=\"1050\" data-end=\"1080\"\u003eonly minor schedule impact\u003c/strong\u003e, given the absence of engines and SpaceX\u0026rsquo;s habit of building multiple boosters in parallel. It also fits SpaceX\u0026rsquo;s \u003cstrong data-start=\"1195\" data-end=\"1245\"\u003efail-fast and instrument-heavy test philosophy\u003c/strong\u003e, which historically trades short-term setbacks for rapid learning cycles and long-term acceleration of the Starship program. The outcome will influence near-term expectations around \u003cstrong data-start=\"1428\" data-end=\"1455\"\u003eStarship flight cadence\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong data-start=\"1457\" data-end=\"1475\"\u003eV3 reliability\u003c/strong\u003e, and the broader roadmap toward lunar and Mars missions.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"title":"Blue Origin Unveils New Glenn Upgrades And Super Heavy 9x4 Variant","summary":null,"tags":["Launch","Blue Origin"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/blue-origin-unveils-new-glenn-upgrades-and-super-heavy-9x4-variant","published_at":"Nov 20, 2025","source":"Blueorigin","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTg3MCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--b2ba97dd0b2dd4303e017aba6a8f52f1d3cf7a08/9x4.jpeg","commentary":"\u003cp\u003eBlue Origin announced a suite of performance upgrades for \u003cstrong data-start=\"147\" data-end=\"160\"\u003eNew Glenn\u003c/strong\u003e, increasing total first stage \u003cstrong data-start=\"191\" data-end=\"199\"\u003eBE 4\u003c/strong\u003e thrust from \u003cstrong data-start=\"212\" data-end=\"227\"\u003e3.9 million\u003c/strong\u003e to \u003cstrong data-start=\"231\" data-end=\"250\"\u003e4.5 million lbf\u003c/strong\u003e and boosting upper stage \u003cstrong data-start=\"276\" data-end=\"285\"\u003eBE 3U\u003c/strong\u003e thrust from \u003cstrong data-start=\"298\" data-end=\"309\"\u003e320,000\u003c/strong\u003e to \u003cstrong data-start=\"313\" data-end=\"328\"\u003e400,000 lbf\u003c/strong\u003e over the next few missions. The company is introducing subcooled propellant operations, a reusable fairing, lower cost tank designs, and a higher performing reusable thermal protection system to support higher cadence and faster booster turnaround. Blue Origin also revealed \u003cstrong data-start=\"604\" data-end=\"621\"\u003eNew Glenn 9x4\u003c/strong\u003e, a super heavy class configuration that can carry more than \u003cstrong data-start=\"682\" data-end=\"700\"\u003e70 metric tons\u003c/strong\u003e to low Earth orbit, over \u003cstrong data-start=\"726\" data-end=\"744\"\u003e14 metric tons\u003c/strong\u003e direct to geosynchronous orbit, and more than \u003cstrong data-start=\"791\" data-end=\"809\"\u003e20 metric tons\u003c/strong\u003e to trans lunar injection. The existing \u003cstrong data-start=\"849\" data-end=\"856\"\u003e7x2\u003c/strong\u003e and new \u003cstrong data-start=\"865\" data-end=\"872\"\u003e9x4\u003c/strong\u003e variants will operate concurrently to serve missions that include mega constellations, lunar and deep space exploration, and national security contracts such as \u003cstrong data-start=\"1034\" data-end=\"1049\"\u003eGolden Dome.\u0026nbsp;\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/strong\u003eThe upgrades and the 9x4 announcement move \u003cstrong data-start=\"1150\" data-end=\"1163\"\u003eNew Glenn\u003c/strong\u003e from a single vehicle program toward a family architecture that more directly mirrors \u003cstrong data-start=\"1250\" data-end=\"1260\"\u003eSpaceX\u003c/strong\u003e with Falcon class and Starship class offerings. Higher thrust levels and a larger \u003cstrong data-start=\"1343\" data-end=\"1356\"\u003e8.7 meter\u003c/strong\u003e fairing improve competitiveness for heavy and complex payloads, including large batches of broadband satellites and defense missions where volume and mass margins drive economics. The concurrent 7x2 and 9x4 strategy provides pricing and performance segmentation that could help Blue Origin capture both constellation deployment and high value government missions. If Blue Origin can translate this technical roadmap into sustained launch cadence, it becomes a more credible challenger in the 2030s in the launch segments that investors currently price as heavily skewed toward SpaceX.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"title":"Rocket Lab Reaches Eighteen Electron Launches In 2025 After Rapid Turnaround","summary":"Rocket Lab has set a new record for Electron launches in a year, reaching 18 launches after back-to-back launches from New Zealand and Virginia. ","tags":["Launch","Rocket Lab"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/rocket-lab-reaches-eighteen-electron-launches-in-2025-after-rapid-turnaround","published_at":"Nov 20, 2025","source":"Satellitetoday","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTg3MSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--0f7e64eb3fab2ee7618e05646fca03ac9e745b09/electron.jpg","commentary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong data-start=\"2166\" data-end=\"2180\"\u003eRocket Lab\u003c/strong\u003e set a new annual record for its \u003cstrong data-start=\"2213\" data-end=\"2225\"\u003eElectron\u003c/strong\u003e small launch vehicle, reaching \u003cstrong data-start=\"2257\" data-end=\"2289\"\u003e18 Electron launches in 2025\u003c/strong\u003e after two missions within roughly \u003cstrong data-start=\"2324\" data-end=\"2336\"\u003e48 hours\u003c/strong\u003e from different hemispheres. The first mission was a \u003cstrong data-start=\"2389\" data-end=\"2398\"\u003eHASTE\u003c/strong\u003e suborbital flight from \u003cstrong data-start=\"2422\" data-end=\"2450\"\u003eWallops Island, Virginia\u003c/strong\u003e for the \u003cstrong data-start=\"2459\" data-end=\"2486\"\u003eDefense Innovation Unit\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong data-start=\"2491\" data-end=\"2517\"\u003eMissile Defense Agency\u003c/strong\u003e, carrying multiple technology payloads for missile defense applications. A follow on Electron mission, \u003cstrong data-start=\"2621\" data-end=\"2640\"\u003eFollow My Speed\u003c/strong\u003e, then lifted off from \u003cstrong data-start=\"2663\" data-end=\"2683\"\u003eLaunch Complex 1\u003c/strong\u003e in \u003cstrong data-start=\"2687\" data-end=\"2702\"\u003eNew Zealand\u003c/strong\u003e for a confidential commercial customer in the early hours of \u003cstrong data-start=\"2764\" data-end=\"2785\"\u003eNov 21 local time\u003c/strong\u003e. Rocket Lab noted this is the third time in twelve months that it has executed two launches within a two day window.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eEighteen successful Electron launches in a single year show that\u003cstrong\u003e Rocket Lab has firmly established reliable cadence\u003c/strong\u003e, removing any doubt about its ability to execute frequent, on-schedule missions. But cadence alone doesn\u0026rsquo;t move Rocket Lab beyond its current role as a high-quality, niche small-launch provider. \u003cstrong\u003eThe real unlock now is proving meaningful\u0026nbsp;\u003cem data-start=\"459\" data-end=\"467\"\u003eupmass\u003c/em\u003e with Neutron\u003c/strong\u003e. Until Neutron demonstrates lift capacity and routine reusability at scale, Rocket Lab remains constrained to secondary and tactically oriented missions. Strong Electron performance does, however, build operational credibility heading into Neutron\u0026rsquo;s debut, now slated for Q2'26, positioning Rocket Lab to make the case that it can graduate from small-launch specialist to a true competitor in the medium-lift market.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"title":"Elon Musk Projects 300 To 500 GW Per Year Of Orbital AI Compute Deployment","summary":null,"tags":["SpaceX","Orbital Data Centers","Starlink"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/elon-musk-projects-300-to-500-gw-per-year-of-orbital-ai-compute-deployment","published_at":"Nov 20, 2025","source":"X","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTg3MywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--80f4a11c07355153c3d4f39bc2cb065432fa889d/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2016.07.15.png","commentary":"\u003cp data-start=\"95\" data-end=\"926\"\u003e\u003cstrong data-start=\"95\" data-end=\"108\"\u003eElon Musk\u003c/strong\u003e stated that \u003cstrong data-start=\"131\" data-end=\"143\"\u003eStarship\u003c/strong\u003e could deliver \u003cstrong data-start=\"158\" data-end=\"201\"\u003e300 gigawatts to 500 gigawatts per year\u003c/strong\u003e of solar-powered AI compute satellites into orbit, framing annual deployment rate rather than cumulative capacity as the defining breakthrough. Musk noted that \u003cstrong data-start=\"362\" data-end=\"388\" data-is-only-node=\"\"\u003e300 gigawatts per year\u003c/strong\u003e of orbital compute would exceed the \u003cstrong data-start=\"425\" data-end=\"449\"\u003eaverage 500 gigawatt\u003c/strong\u003e electricity consumption of the United States every two years, positioning space-based compute as an economy-scale infrastructure category. He added that \u003cstrong data-start=\"603\" data-end=\"638\"\u003eterrestrial solar manufacturing\u003c/strong\u003e already exceeds \u003cstrong data-start=\"655\" data-end=\"683\"\u003e1,500 gigawatts per year\u003c/strong\u003e, placing chip production and packaging rather than launch or power hardware as the primary bottleneck. Musk argued that the solution requires the \u003cstrong data-start=\"830\" data-end=\"847\"\u003eTesla Terafab\u003c/strong\u003e and eventually \u003cstrong data-start=\"863\" data-end=\"883\"\u003elunar production\u003c/strong\u003e to reach \u003cstrong data-start=\"893\" data-end=\"919\"\u003e100 terawatts per year\u003c/strong\u003e scale.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp data-start=\"928\" data-end=\"1671\"\u003eA credible path to\u0026nbsp;\u003cstrong data-start=\"1104\" data-end=\"1130\"\u003e300 gigawatts per year\u003c/strong\u003e would imply tens of thousands of tons launched annually, materially altering valuation frameworks for \u003cstrong data-start=\"1233\" data-end=\"1252\"\u003eSpaceX\u0026rsquo;s launch\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong data-start=\"1254\" data-end=\"1281\"\u003eStarlink infrastructure\u003c/strong\u003e, and prospective \u003cstrong data-start=\"1299\" data-end=\"1328\"\u003eorbital compute divisions\u003c/strong\u003e. The shift in bottleneck from lift capacity to semiconductor and module supply highlights where capital constraints and competitive moats are likely to form. Musk\u0026rsquo;s mention of lunar manufacturing also signals the company\u0026rsquo;s intent to position Starship and related infrastructure as the enabling layer for post terrestrial industrial expansion.\u003c/p\u003e"}]}
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