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The FCC votes tomorrow on replacing legacy EPFD rules with a performance-based regime. Separately, the FCC dismissed SpaceX's Big LEO MSS petition, hardening the regulatory floor under the asset Amazon just paid for. Blue Origin confirmed the NG-3 anomaly traces to a BE-3U thrust shortfall on the second burn. SpaceX returned Falcon Heavy to flight after 18 months, won a slot on the $3.2 billion Golden Dome interceptor prototype contract, and surfaced an FCC filing for a quad-band Ka/V/E/W gateway at Bastrop.
Dive deeper into our flagship piece this week: "Orbital Data Centers Report: The Comprehensive Institutional Analysis." Seven months of diligence resolves to a single conclusion: orbital compute crosses frontier-scale terrestrial economics on a 5-year-normalised CapEx basis in the 2029-2032 window. This weekly analysis serves as a synthesis of the report; full report and underlying model are exclusive to Mach33 Premium Research members.
Tomorrow — Mach33 Weekly Podcast. This week's session walks through our ODC report, including the modelling change that pushed our terrestrial cost curves down and shifted cost parity into the 2029–2032 window, and our read on the FCC's EPFD vote, Blue Origin's BE-3U diagnosis, and SpaceX's quad-band Bastrop gateway filing. Sign up here.
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| Latest Analysis |
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| Apr 29, 2026 |
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Orbital Data Centers Report: The Comprehensive Institutional Analysis
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Orbital Data Centers
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The full Orbital Data Center Report is the convergence of all Mach33 diligence on orbital data centers; the complete narrative for the value of ODCs. This analysis is the synthesis: terrestrial hits a grid wall, orbital crosses the cost curve as SpaceX's stack matures, and four investor gates collapse to only one operator.
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| Apr 21, 2026 |
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Amazon–Globalstar, Starlink Scale, New Glenn Setback, and SpaceX–Cursor Talks | Mach 33 Private Podcast Ep. 1
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SpaceX
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In this week’s private briefing, Mach33’s research team breaks down the developments shaping the space economy and adjacent deep technologies, with a focus on what matters most for investors.
We cover Amazon’s reported acquisition of Globalstar and what it signals about the evolving satellite landscape, Musk’s projection of launching up to 20,000 Starlink satellites per year against prior cumulative expectations, and the implications of New Glenn’s failure to reach orbit. We also discuss reported acquisition conversations between Cursor and SpaceX, and what this could mean for the intersection of software and space infrastructure.
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| Industry News |
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Arianespace flew its second Ariane 64 in the four-booster configuration from French Guiana, deploying 32 Amazon Leo satellites on the LE-02 mission. The flight is the second of an 18-launch contract Amazon procured from Arianespace.
The launch matters more for Amazon than Arianespace. With the FCC requiring Amazon to deploy half of Amazon Leo by July 2026 and New Glenn grounded indefinitely, Amazon is leaning on every alternative manifest, including Ariane 6, ULA Atlas V, and Falcon 9. Ariane 64 cadence sits near six flights per year, well below Falcon-class, but it is the only non-U.S. heavy-lift option on the Amazon Leo manifest. Amazon is paying a strategic premium to spread deployment rather than buy more Falcon 9.
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SpaceX scrubbed its first Falcon Heavy launch in 18 months on Apr 27 due to weather and reset for an Apr 29 attempt from Kennedy Space Center carrying ViaSat-3 F3, the third and final spacecraft in Viasat's geostationary broadband constellation. The 6.6-ton satellite is bound for GEO. Falcon Heavy last flew in October 2024.
ViaSat-3 F3 matters more for the architecture story than the cadence. With Vulcan grounded since the February SRB anomaly and New Glenn grounded after NG-3, Falcon Heavy is the only operational U.S. heavy-lift commercial GEO option this quarter. The sole-source position will not last, but any commercial GEO operator weighing a 2026 launch decision is now choosing Falcon Heavy or waiting. Pricing leverage shifts accordingly.
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The FCC is scheduled to vote on April 30 on a Report and Order that replaces decades-old satellite spectrum-sharing rules with a modern performance-based regime in the bands Starlink and other LEO operators use for consumer broadband. The Commission estimates up to a sevenfold capacity lift, $2 billion in U.S. economic benefit, and $10 billion to $100 billion globally if other regulators follow. Viasat, SES, and DirecTV oppose.
This is the biggest regulatory tailwind for Starlink V3 economics the FCC could realistically deliver, and the policy counterpart to the Bastrop quad-band gateway filing. The order does not give NGSO operators new spectrum. It removes the assumption that legacy GSO interference math caps NGSO power and modulation choices. Throughput per satellite rises with the same allocation, compressing cost per bit and accelerating Starlink broadband revenue. GSO operators are likely to file for reconsideration or sue. Either path delays implementation, but is unlikely to reverse direction.
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The U.S. Space Force awarded up to $3.2 billion across 12 companies for space-based interceptor prototypes under Golden Dome. Awardees include SpaceX, Anduril, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Booz Allen, General Dynamics, GITAI USA, Quindar, Sci-Tec, True Anomaly, and Turion Space. Contracts are Other Transaction Authority agreements, and awardees must demonstrate a working interceptor capability by 2028.
This is the first time SpaceX has been publicly contracted on the interceptor itself, not just the launch or constellation layer. The 12 names will compress to two or three production winners and convert into multi-billion follow-ons if Golden Dome stays funded. The cost-skepticism Gen. Guetlein flagged at HASC on Apr 16 has not killed the space layer. The Pentagon is paying to find out whether the unit economics work, which is a different posture than cancellation.
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Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp confirmed that the NG-3 anomaly, which stranded AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird 7 at a 95-mile orbit against a 285-mile target, was caused by one of the two BE-3U upper-stage engines failing to produce sufficient thrust on its second burn. The investigation continues under FAA oversight with no return-to-flight date. AST has written off BlueBird 7 and is recovering through insurance.
The diagnosis is the worst possible flag for Blue Origin. BE-3U is the only domestic hydrogen upper-stage engine paired to a heavy-lift vehicle, and the second burn is exactly the regime Blue Moon and Amazon Leo missions need. Every customer planning to fly on New Glenn over the next two quarters has to assume the vehicle stays grounded into Q3. That is bad news for Amazon's July deployment milestone, AST's August deadline, and the Pentagon's second-provider strategy that just handed Blue Origin SLC-14 at Vandenberg.
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SpaceX filed an FCC application, SES-LIC-20260306-00745, for a new gateway earth station called "First of Its Name" at its Starlink manufacturing campus in Bastrop, Texas. The filing describes 40 antennas with 1.99-meter parabolic dishes operating across the Ka, V, E, and W bands. The application was filed in March and surfaced in the press on Apr 23.
The application reveals two specific things investors can verify directly. SpaceX is licensing four bands at this gateway rather than the Ka and E bands used at prior gateway sites, which expands the licensed spectrum the ground network can use. And SpaceX is putting the gateway on the same campus where Starlink user terminals and satellite hardware are manufactured, rather than a stand-alone gateway location. SpaceX has not disclosed throughput targets, link budgets, or how this gateway fits into Starlink V3 capacity planning.
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FCC order DA 26-398 dismissed with prejudice SpaceX's RM-11975 petition on the Big LEO 1.6/2.4 GHz NGSO MSS sharing plan, Iridium's parallel petition, Kepler's market-access application in the same band, Sateliot's 2 GHz MSS petition, and AST SpaceMobile's request to operate in portions of that spectrum outside the U.S. The order preserves Globalstar's and Iridium's exclusive Big LEO operating rights. The same package separately endorsed SpaceX globally in AWS-4 (2000-2020 / 2180-2200 MHz).
This is a regulatory loss for SpaceX in a U.S. spectrum proceeding and the strongest defense of Globalstar's and Iridium's incumbent positions in years. The FCC is drawing band-by-band lanes for D2C rather than picking one ecosystem winner. Globalstar's negotiating leverage in any future partner renegotiation just went up because the regulatory floor under its spectrum is harder than it has been since 2007. Starlink Direct-to-Cell's growth path now flows through AWS-4 and partner-MNO licensed spectrum, consistent with SpaceX's behavior in the AWS-3 auction and the EchoStar acquisition. AST got domestic D2C commercial approval one day prior, but lost the broader MSS footprint here.
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The FCC granted AST SpaceMobile commercial authority to deploy 248 satellites and provide direct-to-device cellular broadband in the U.S. using 700 MHz and 800 MHz spectrum coordinated through Verizon, AT&T, and FirstNet. The order requires AST to launch 124 satellites, half the constellation, by August 2, 2030.
The license is the operational green light AST has been waiting for, and it lands two days after New Glenn stranded BlueBird 7. AST now has the regulatory shape of a national-scale D2D operator, and while the 2030 milestone provides more breathing room, continuous launch slips still carry long-term licensing risk. With launches expected every one to two months across SpaceX, ISRO, and Blue Origin manifests, each booster anomaly compresses the schedule. Starlink Direct-to-Cell now has a fully licensed U.S. competitor on a public 124-by-August-2030 clock, in a market the FCC DA 26-398 ruling just walled off from MSS-band entry.
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| Mach33 |
| The Space Finance Group |
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