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Investors across the space sector focused on one stock this week. SpaceX closes its institutional order book on June 11 and lists on the Nasdaq as SPCX on June 12 at $135 a share, near $1.77 trillion of equity value and about $75 billion raised, the largest IPO on record. The banks running the deal report orders worth several times the shares available. SpaceX disclosed a cloud agreement with Google worth $920 million a month, about $30 billion through mid-2029. At a JPMorgan event, Musk said the orbital "AI satellites" SpaceX plans to build will carry whatever Nvidia or Google chips customers choose. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have published 2030 revenue forecasts that differ by $140 billion, a gap that comes almost entirely from their different assumptions about that compute business.

The V1 of our Gigamodel has arrived. The model is a work in progress but we will continue to iterate and update our valuation as the roadshow progresses. We welcome you to view it here.

If you haven't already, sign up for our weekly recurring podcast. The next is tomorrow, at 11AM EST, where we'll walk through the results of our modelled Monte Carlo outputs live.

Latest Analysis
SpaceX Is Priced at the Floor: Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel Highlights
Jun 09, 2026
SpaceX Is Priced at the Floor: Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel Highlights
StarlinkValuationSpaceXOrbital Data Centers

SpaceX prices its IPO this week. At $135 a share the deal carries roughly $1.77 trillion of equity value and raises about $75 billion, the largest listing on record; SPCX begins trading on NASDAQ on June 12. Our first article opened up the model and walked through how it works, but it held back on numbers. This piece puts the IPO opening price on the page.

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Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel Download
Jun 09, 2026
Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel Download
ModelValuationSpaceX

Premium members - access the Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel here. If you're not a paid subscriber, you can also request access.

Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel June'26
Model Premium
Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel June'26
This model values the merged SpaceX + xAI as a sum of its parts: Starlink, Customer Launch, AI-Compute, and Lunar/Mars, each competing for a shared...
June'26 SpaceX Monte Carlo Headline
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June'26 SpaceX Monte Carlo Headline
This is the Monte Carlo run of the SpaceX GigaModel: 5,000 trials perturb 354 tagged inputs and record the headline group enterprise value, revenue...
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Inside Mach 33's SpaceX Valuation Model: Key Takeaways | Episode #6
Jun 04, 2026
Inside Mach 33's SpaceX Valuation Model: Key Takeaways | Episode #6
SpaceX

Mach33 CEO Aaron Burnett and Research Head Vlad Saigau break down their updated 500-variable valuation model covering Starlink, launch, and AI compute.

Key takeaways? TerraFab may only need about 10% of full capacity to support orbital compute demand through 2040. AI compute could surpass Starlink by 2035, with total SpaceX company revenue reaching $1.8 trillion by 2040. Their valuation range spanned roughly $6T to $18T by 2040, while their conservative 2025 perpetuity estimate of ~$2.5T aligned closely with expected IPO pricing.

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Industry News
Musk Says SpaceX Could Reach 1 Million Tons to Orbit in About Five Years
Jun 10, 2026
Musk Says SpaceX Could Reach 1 Million Tons to Orbit in About Five Years
SpaceX

On June 10, 2026, Elon Musk posted on X, replying to SpaceX and Sawyer Merritt, that "1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughly 5 years." Benzinga reported the same statement. The post followed a June 8 technical update at SpaceX's Bastrop, Texas site, where Musk said SpaceX aims to raise Starship annual upmass from about 2,500 tons to about 1 million tons within roughly three years. 

At 100 tons per reusable flight, one million tons a year requires about 10,000 launches, close to 27 per day, against a 2026 production target of roughly ten vehicle sets. The statement is a target Musk set rather than capacity SpaceX can sell today.

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Banks Report SpaceX IPO Well Oversubscribed Ahead of June 11 Book Close
Jun 08, 2026
Banks Report SpaceX IPO Well Oversubscribed Ahead of June 11 Book Close
SpaceX

Bloomberg reported on June 8, 2026 that the banks running the SpaceX IPO told investors the offering was well oversubscribed, with several institutions each ordering near $10 billion. The banks will close institutional order books after the New York close on Wednesday, June 11, then price that evening for a June 12 Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX. SpaceX is selling 555.6 million shares at a fixed $135 to raise about $75 billion, which the underwriters peg at a valuation near $1.8 trillion. President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen worked roughly 300 investors at Morgan Stanley's New York offices during the roadshow. A day later, on June 9, Reuters cited a source putting demand above $250 billion, close to four times the offering.

With orders running past supply, the banks can steer shares toward long-only funds. 30% has been allocated to retail investors. SpaceX fixed the price at $135, so the underwriters cannot raise the clip to capture the surplus, and investors take tighter allocations instead of SpaceX banking a larger raise.

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Musk Says SpaceX Will Let Customers Run Any GPU or TPU on Its Planned AI Satellites
Jun 05, 2026
Musk Says SpaceX Will Let Customers Run Any GPU or TPU on Its Planned AI Satellites
SpaceX

At a JPMorgan investor event, Elon Musk said SpaceX will build its planned orbital "AI satellites" to run third-party accelerators, so customers can fly Nvidia GPUs or Google TPUs of their choice. @niccruzpatane posted the quote from the event on X, and trade coverage of the appearance reported the same. Musk made the remark the week SpaceX disclosed its $920 million per month Google compute agreement and days before the June 12 listing. SpaceX has shown an "AI Sat Mini" concept rated near 100 kilowatts per satellite at earlier events. It has not flown orbital compute hardware or published a delivery date.

An accelerator-agnostic design would widen SpaceX's customer set past any single chip vendor, which feeds the AI-revenue case behind the bank forecasts in item 9. SpaceX has filed no design, no power-and-thermal spec, and no customer contract for orbital compute, so the claim works as roadshow positioning rather than a purchasable product.

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SpaceX Signs $920 Million Per Month Compute Agreement With Google
Jun 05, 2026
SpaceX Signs $920 Million Per Month Compute Agreement With Google
SpaceXGoogle

SpaceX disclosed a Cloud Service Agreement with Google entered June 5, 2026, in a free-writing prospectus tied to its S-1, under which Google pays $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to compute capacity, including roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs plus CPUs, memory and related components. The committed payments total about $30 billion over the term. The filing states Google may terminate if SpaceX fails to deliver the committed GPU capacity by September 30, 2026 after a one-month grace period, or accept available GPUs at proportionally reduced payments; after December 31, 2026 either party may exit on 90 days' notice. CNBC and Bloomberg reported the terms on June 5.

The agreement books a data-center revenue line that several outlets project will rival SpaceX's combined Starlink, launch and prior AI revenue, which reframes the company the IPO is pricing. The September 30 delivery condition puts the full monthly run-rate at risk of SpaceX's own hardware buildout schedule, so the $30 billion headline is contingent, not contracted-firm. Disclosing a Google counterparty days before pricing hands underwriters a named, investment-grade customer to anchor the AI revenue assumptions in the roadshow.

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Satellite Manufacturer Apex Space Raises Over $200 Million at a $2.3 Billion Valuation
Jun 05, 2026
Satellite Manufacturer Apex Space Raises Over $200 Million at a $2.3 Billion Valuation
Apex Space

Apex raised more than $200 million and roughly doubled its valuation to $2.3 billion, Bloomberg and SpaceNews reported on June 5, 2026. The four-year-old, Los Angeles manufacturer builds satellite buses and cited demand from commercial and government customers, including work tied to the Golden Dome missile defense effort. The round lands days after Northrop Grumman named Apex its bus partner for space-based interceptors.

Pairing a fresh $200 million balance sheet with the Northrop selection gives Apex the working capital to scale production against a 2027 demonstration deadline. The landmark raise also serves as an early indication of private capital flowing into satellite-bus manufacturing.

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Planet Labs Posts $94 Million Quarter and Extends NGA Contract
Jun 04, 2026
Planet Labs Posts $94 Million Quarter and Extends NGA Contract
Planet Labs

Planet Labs reported fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $94 million, up 42% year over year, on June 4, 2026, alongside remaining performance obligations of $816 million, up 81%, and backlog above $906 million. The company disclosed a $21.9 million one-year contract extension from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency plus a new NGA award for its Global Monitoring Service. Defense and intelligence revenue grew more than 65% year over year. Non-GAAP gross margin was 56%, down from 59% a year earlier.

The backlog and RPO growth outpaced revenue, which signals demand booked ahead of recognized sales and gives forward visibility on the government side. The margin compression to 56% runs against that, indicating Planet is buying revenue growth partly through lower-margin data and services work. The $21.9 million NGA extension is small against backlog but confirms the agency relationship that anchors the defense and intelligence segment.

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Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Circulate SpaceX Revenue Forecasts Into the Roadshow
Jun 04, 2026
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Circulate SpaceX Revenue Forecasts Into the Roadshow
SpaceX

Sell-side research from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, surfaced June 4, 2026, projects SpaceX revenue near $160 billion in 2028, against approximately $18.7 billion in 2025. For 2030, Goldman models above $470 billion and Morgan Stanley about $330 billion, a roughly $140 billion gap the banks attribute to differing AI-compute growth assumptions. Morgan Stanley's longer pitch runs to $3.4 trillion of revenue by 2040. 

These are underwriter projections published during the marketing window for a deal those same banks are running, so they describe an incentive to value the float. The $140 billion divergence at 2030 sits almost entirely in the AI-compute line, which drives the majority of the $1.77 trillion valuation.

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Mach33
The Space Finance Group