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A note before the news: today we're opening Mach33 Research to individual members for the first time. We've spent a long time building this for enterprise, and we've learned an enormous amount getting the research to a standard we're finally ready to put in your hands directly. Many of you have followed us for years, so this one feels personal; which is why the first 13 members who commit to an annual plan will join as Founding Members, with their rate locked permanently as our research grows. It's our way of thanking the people who back something before it's obvious. Subscribe here.

(One housekeeping item: this week's webinar has been cancelled due to the holidays in the US. Zoom will have emailed registrants, but consider this your clear confirmation.)

To the week itself. Rocket Lab made the boldest move, acquiring Iridium for $8B and buying its way into an operating satellite constellation and recurring revenue. SpaceX dominated the tape for the wrong reasons: its bond selloff deepened past $300M in secondary losses, and SPCX volatility was sharp enough to prompt 401(k) guidance from Yahoo Finance. On the ground, Starlink is providing free service to Venezuela earthquake victims through July 25, and Nebex raised a $30M seed led by Google Ventures. Dive deeper in our latest analysis: "SpaceX AI Revenue to 2030" Our model traces SpaceX's AI and compute revenue from $19.5B in 2026 to $205B by 2030 in the base case. With our current understanding and assumptions, we project SpaceX out-builds its own AI demand by roughly 2:1 through the end of the decade, leaving a large portion of revenue coming from leasing the surplus.

 

Latest Analysis
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Jul 01, 2026
SpaceX AI Revenue to 2030
SpaceX

SpaceX out-builds its own AI demand roughly two to one, turning the surplus into a leasing book that carries its AI and compute segment to $205B by 2030 in our base case ($74B to $317B). The result reads less as a landlord or a lab than as the hardware engine under enterprise AI.

SpaceX AI Revenue Model
Model Premium
SpaceX AI Revenue Model
This model builds SpaceX/xAI's terrestrial AI revenue bottom-up from compute leasing and the Grok and Cursor apps, splitting the fleet into interna...
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SpaceX's Bond Debut, the First Starfall Drop, and a Falcon 9 Playbook for AI Compute | Episode #9
Jun 25, 2026
SpaceX's Bond Debut, the First Starfall Drop, and a Falcon 9 Playbook for AI Compute | Episode #9
SpaceX

SpaceX’s first investment-grade bond offering drew overwhelming demand, further strengthening its balance sheet. The episode also explores Starfall’s role in enabling in-space manufacturing and analyzes SpaceX’s AI compute strategy, including how it plans to use and monetize excess capacity.

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Industry News
Nebex Raises $30 Million Seed Round
Jun 29, 2026
Nebex Raises $30 Million Seed Round
nebexgoogle ventures

Nebex, a space fintech founded in late 2025 by former Axiom Space CEO Tejpaul Bhatia, disclosed a $30 million seed round on June 29, 2026, co-led by GV (Google Ventures) and Eniac Ventures, with participation from 2048 Ventures, Better Tomorrow Ventures, and other funds. The company concurrently announced a banking relationship with J.P. Morgan. Nebex is building an online exchange to connect U.S. space companies selling technology, foreign governments seeking to acquire space capabilities, and the investors financing those transactions, with the stated aim of resolving the cross-border payment friction that national security export controls impose.

$30 million is large for a pre-revenue fintech, and GV's lead position indicates that Alphabet sees cross-border space-transaction infrastructure as a category-level opportunity rather than a niche. The concurrent J.P. Morgan relationship supplies the established intermediary that sovereign counterparties require before they will transact. U.S. ITAR and EAR controls restrict technology transfers to foreign governments, and Nebex cannot clear sovereign deals at scale until its compliance-automation layer satisfies them. Bhatia reports that foreign space agencies and institutional investors are already approaching the company to negotiate contracts ahead of a launch targeted for later in 2026, none of which becomes revenue until the platform is live.

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Rocket Lab Acquires Iridium for $8 Billion
Jun 29, 2026
Rocket Lab Acquires Iridium for $8 Billion
Rocket LabIridium

Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) announced on June 29, 2026 a definitive agreement to acquire Iridium Communications (Nasdaq: IRDM) at $54 per share in a cash-and-stock deal representing approximately $8.0 billion in enterprise value, a 24.1% premium to Iridium's prior close. The transaction combines Rocket Lab's launch vehicles and satellite manufacturing with Iridium's global L-band satellite network, licensed spectrum, and more than 2.5 million subscribers. Rocket Lab shares rose approximately 16% and Iridium shares surged approximately 25% on the announcement. The deal is expected to close in mid-2027, subject to Iridium stockholder approval and regulatory clearances.   

The acquisition, confirmed by simultaneous SEC Form 8-K filings from both companies, gives Rocket Lab an operating revenue base from Iridium's approximately $871.7 million in annual revenue alongside the L-band spectrum asset. The $3.6 billion bridge loan commitment from Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, combined with planned additional debt and equity financing, will substantially increase Rocket Lab's leverage ratio. Iridium's 500-plus partner ecosystem and existing government and defense contracts provide Rocket Lab with an immediate commercial pipeline that bypasses the multi-year customer acquisition cycle required to build a new satellite communications business from scratch. The mid-2027 close timeline subjects the transaction to potential national security review given Iridium's role in safety-of-life and defense communications.

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SpaceX Bond Selloff Deepens as Secondary Losses Exceed $300M
Jun 29, 2026
SpaceX Bond Selloff Deepens as Secondary Losses Exceed $300M
SpaceX

SpaceX's $25 billion inaugural bond offering, which settled June 26, 2026, suffered unusually steep secondary-market losses in the days following pricing, with paper losses reported by traders as exceeding $300 million. Traders cited fast-money investors exiting positions, while analysts at GAM and IG warned that investors holding both SPCX equity and SpaceX bonds carry concentrated single-name execution risk. CNBC reported that SpaceX equity fell more than 13% for the week following the bond announcement, as the bond order book had reached nearly $90 billion at peak. 

The secondary widening on a debut investment-grade issue that attracted near-$90 billion in orders is mechanically consistent with fast-money accounts flipping allocations rather than a fundamental reassessment of credit quality. GAM and IG raise a structural concern. SpaceX's debt and equity are not independent bets, given both depend on the same operational outcomes. A fund holding allocations from both the IPO and the bond gets no diversification from the pair. That caps how much SpaceX a multi-asset mandate can hold, since a second position only raises single-name exposure. The December 2026 lockup expiry adds further equity pressure, since it releases more stock into a name these funds already hold in size.

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SpaceX SPCX Volatility Prompts 401(k) Guidance
Jun 27, 2026
SpaceX SPCX Volatility Prompts 401(k) Guidance
IPOSpaceX

Yahoo Finance published an analysis of SpaceX's (SPCX) post-IPO volatility and its mechanical entry as a stock into retirement accounts via index funds. Since listing, SPCX has traded between its June 12 opening price of $150 and a new closing low on June 26, but it remains roughly 30% above the $135 IPO price. Nasdaq-100 and FTSE Russell adopted fast-entry rules this spring that let SPCX join their major benchmarks within days of listing, which forces the passive funds held in 401(k) plans to buy the shares. S&P Dow Jones Indices took the opposite stance. It rejected a proposal to fast-track mega-cap IPOs and kept its 12-month seasoning period and GAAP profitability requirement in place, so SpaceX cannot enter the S&P 500 until at least mid-2027.

Because Nasdaq-100 and FTSE Russell changed their rules before the IPO, the passive funds that track those benchmarks must buy SPCX on entry regardless of valuation. Morningstar's Zachary Evens and SpotGamma Research, both cited in the article, estimate the rules will force $22 billion to $27 billion of mechanical buying from Nasdaq-100 and Russell trackers combined in the weeks after the IPO. SpaceX's float-adjusted weight in total-market funds is expected to be a near-inconsequential amount of 0.10% to 0.20%, palatable for most passive investors.

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Starlink Provides Free Service to Venezuela Earthquake Victims Through July 25
Jun 25, 2026
Starlink Provides Free Service to Venezuela Earthquake Victims Through July 25
Starlink

On June 25, 2026, Starlink announced that it would provide free satellite internet through July 25 to new and existing customers in Venezuela affected by the recent earthquakes, and that it was deploying terminals to the hardest-hit regions. The announcement, issued through the company's verified account, directed users to starlink.com/support. Starlink disclosed neither financial terms nor deployment figures.

In earlier disasters Starlink has utilized free service to enter new markets, placing terminals in homes and businesses that would not otherwise have acquired them. Venezuela's terrestrial networks have largely collapsed. Satellite is now the primary means of connectivity. The households enrolling are far poorer than Starlink's typical customers. We would not mistake that reach for durable revenue. Free service ends July 25, and we expect few subscribers to convert to paid plans, given incomes are weak and payment is difficult to collect, though retention may prove higher where satellite is the sole means of access. Starlink also extended coverage without the fresh regulatory approval that entry into most markets requires. Near-term revenue will be modest, but the installed terminals will remain in homes and businesses beyond the reach of any terrestrial rival.

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Mach33
The Space Finance Group