|
|
Starship Flight 13, targeting July 16, carries its first operational payload, 20 Starlink V3 satellites, six of them fitted with camera suites that will scan the heat shield in flight, making the deployment double as a vehicle diagnostics pass. The Space Development Agency put $1.75 billion on contract for Tranche 3 of its Tracking Layer, roughly $955 million to L3Harris and $798 million to Sierra Space, 18 satellites each, feeding the Golden Dome architecture by end of 2028. China caught a Long March 10B first stage with a net-rigged recovery ship, a reusability milestone for its program. Rocket Lab ran a full-duration hot-fire of its Archimedes Vacuum engine ahead of Neutron's late-2026 debut.
If you haven't already, sign up for this week's webinar, back at our usual time of 11 AM EST after last week's one-off. [Sign up here.]
This week's analysis, "The Orbital Inference Containment Tax," prices the sharpest technical objection to SpaceXAI serving AI from orbit: GPUs computing one answer must sync within microseconds and so the team of chips ends at the satellite's hull, 72 GPUs. Forcing a frontier model into that box forgoes up to 44% of throughput, roughly $5 million per satellite-year at an illustrative $0.50 per million tokens. The tax is real and it decays: chip-specific software, the rewrite we modelled last issue, cuts it from 1.80x to 1.40x, and a model co-designed to fit the satellite takes it to 1.15x. The full analysis is public and the underlying model is exclusive to Mach33 Premium Research members.
|
| Latest Analysis |
|
|
| Jul 15, 2026 |
|
The Orbital Inference Containment Tax
|
|
AI ChipsSpaceXOrbital Data CentersSpaceXAi
|
|
The sharpest technical objection to SpaceX's orbital AI plan is not power or heat. It is that modern AI models are designed to run across hundreds of interconnected chips... so we model how a typical 72 GPU NVDA rack would perform as a node in comparison. Forcing a frontier model into one satellite forgoes up to 44% of achievable output. The penalty is real but not permanent, better software, slimmer models, and models designed to fit the satellite could reduce it to near parity over time.
|
|
|
|
Read More →
|
|
| Jul 09, 2026 |
|
Peter Hague on Orbital Refueling, the Case for Mars, and a C Rewrite That Shrinks Grok's Release Cycle | Episode #10
|
|
Grok
|
|
We resume the podcast during a busy week in space. Aaron and Vlad run the headlines (Blue Origin's ~$10B raise at a $130B valuation, a Starlink FCC filing for 100,000 satellites, and an aviation price hike), then unpack the "C rewrite" analysis, which collapses an 8-week training cycle to 5.3 weeks. Guest astrophysicist Peter Hague argues that orbital refueling isn't the showstopper, thermal protection is, and the real reason to go out is a solar system that could one day hold 16 trillion people on a thousandth of the sun's output.
Peter Hague writes Planetocracy, a Substack on the future of humanity in space that pairs well with this piece, click here to read his work.
|
|
Read More →
|
|
|
| Industry News |
|
|
|
|
SpaceX is targeting July 16, 2026 for Starship Flight 13 from Starbase, Texas, the program's first flight to deploy 20 functioning Starlink V3 satellites rather than simulators. Six of the satellites carry camera suites that will scan Starship's heat shield and transmit imagery during the suborbital flight.
Read More →
|
|
|
|
China's Long March 10B, with a planned payload capacity of at least 16 metric tons, launched from Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site on July 10, 2026 and had its first stage caught by a net-rigged recovery ship six minutes after separation; CASC says it plans to refly the booster before year-end.
Read More →
|
|
|
|
Rocket Lab completed a full-duration hot-fire test of its Archimedes Vacuum (AVac) engine on July 13, a milestone the company called critical preparation for Neutron's debut flight, now targeted for late 2026. The AVac engine produces about 1.2 times the thrust of the first-stage Archimedes variant and is 2.5 meters taller due to its extended nozzle.
Read More →
|
|
|
|
The Space Development Agency awarded L3Harris approximately $955 million for 18 missile defense satellites and Sierra Space approximately $798 million for 18 missile warning and tracking satellites, totaling $1.75 billion for Tranche 3 of the Tracking Layer. The 36 satellites support the Golden Dome missile defense architecture and are expected available for launch by end of 2028.
Read More →
|
|
|
| Mach33 |
| The Space Finance Group |
|
|
|