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SpaceX is back on the pad: Starship Flight 13 now targets July 23, the rescheduled attempt after the July 16 try ended in a launch abort, with the Starlink V3 payload still aboard. The U.S. Space Force tripled the ceiling of its NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 contract from $5.6 billion to $17 billion through FY2029, widening the launch task orders competed among seven providers, from SpaceX and ULA to Stoke Space and Relativity Space, ahead of rising satellite-deployment demand. Tesla confirmed the production Cybercab will carry built-in Starlink connectivity, with Tesla and Starlink announcing Starlink V5 integration in same-day posts on July 20 and disclosing no timeline or technical specifications.
A change this week: the podcast now streams live on X rather than through the webinar signup. Same conversation, same time, 11 AM EST; catch it on the Mach33 account. Follow us here
This week's analysis, "The Radiation Tax: Glitches, Storms, and the Effects of Radiation on Orbital Inference," prices what space itself charges an orbital compute fleet, the companion line item to the containment tax we modelled last issue. Our Orbital Radiation Model puts a 1,000-satellite reference fleet at roughly 55,000 radiation glitches per day, which layered error handling cuts to about 15 uncorrectable errors and 99.9984% availability. The tax runs about $82,000 per satellite-year, a quarter of the gross compute sold, and 99% of it is the launch cost of carrying the shielding rather than the damage itself. Radiation economics is launch-mass economics, which hands the lever to the vehicle above: at Starship-class pricing the tax collapses to roughly $8,700 and disappears into the hardware-refresh budget. The full analysis is public and the underlying model is exclusive to Mach33 Premium Research members.
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| Latest Analysis |
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| Jul 22, 2026 |
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The Radiation Tax: Glitches, Storms, and the effects of Radiation on Orbital Inference
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The radiation that is supposed to wall off orbital AI resolves into an operating condition: a 1,000-satellite reference fleet absorbs roughly 55,000 glitches a day and still posts 99.9984% availability. We built a physics engine, graded against 25 published flight and beam records, to price the damage, and 99% of the resulting tax is not the errors but the launch cost of carrying the shield. Radiation economics is launch-mass economics. The model behind the analysis is attached for members.
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Model
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Orbital Radiation Model
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This model prices what space radiation costs an orbital compute fleet, from glitch rates and availability to dollars, validated against published f...
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| Industry News |
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Tesla confirmed on July 20, 2026 that the Cybercab will carry built-in Starlink connectivity, with new infographics at its reopened Santana Row showroom labeling Starlink integration on the production model. Tesla and Starlink also announced Starlink V5 integration in same-day posts on X, disclosing no timeline or technical specifications, per Electrek.
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SpaceXAI said on July 19, 2026 that it is now targeting Thursday, July 23 at the earliest for Starship's thirteenth flight test. The flight is set to carry Starlink V3 satellites for the first time, after a July 16 attempt was aborted when several Raptor engines failed to ignite.
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The U.S. Space Force raised the ceiling of the National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1 contract from $5.6 billion to $17 billion in a notice. Seven approved providers compete for task orders under the vehicle, and the Space Force says projected launch needs have expanded sharply since the Phase 3 strategy was set in 2024.
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| The Space Finance Group |
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