{"frequency":"weekly","subject":"Weekly Space Intelligence: T-Mobile Turns on DTC Data, Blue Origin Eyes Lunar Resources, Artemis II Advances","introduction":null,"banner":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTUwOCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--cc391566a89a33b9190ffc6c8ca70dcd9afd989e/Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20M33_NewsletterBanner.jpg","posts":[{"title":"T-Mobile + Starlink DTC: From Texts to Data - But How Capable?","slug":"t-mobile-starlink-dtc-from-texts-to-data-but-how-capable","visibility":"restricted","type":"analysis","summary":"Executive Summary• FCC waiver unlocks viability: A +10 dB power boost approved in March 2025 lifts Starlink DTC performance from ~4 Mbps to mid-teens Mbps under sparse conditions, transforming weak, intermittent links into more consistent connections through glass, walls, and foliage.• First data launch imminent: T-Mobile rolled out texting/MMS in July 2025 and will begin data services on October 1, 2025, with coverage included for free in its top-tier plans — creating early adoption and churn reduction before rivals like AST SpaceMobile can scale.• Usability anchored in light apps: Roughly 90% of apps supported (messaging, maps, weather, safety tools) consume 10 kbps, making them viable even when shared-load conditions drag per-user speeds into the tens of kbps.• Limits remain: Wide V2 Mini beams (thousands of km²) mean truly sparse, single-user scenarios are rare. Messaging and basic voice are reliable; mid-res video is possible only in the most remote beams; broadband-class use remains out of reach.• Strategic positioning: In the near term, DTC is about universal coverage, not broadband; a “dead-zone killer” product that saves telcos rural capex. Longer term, V3 satellites will boost speeds by an order of magnitude and overall capacity by two, enabling suburban/urban utility and giving SpaceX leverage to evolve from wholesale partner into a hybrid or full carrier.","card_description":"\u003cdiv\u003eThere have been no public speed tests since the FCC granted a +10 dB power boost in March 2025. We model expected performance by scaling from the last available crowdsourced results and early field tests, to give investors a realistic picture of what Starlink’s direct-to-cell service is likely delivering today as T-Mobile begins rolling out data.\u003c/div\u003e","tags":["T-Mobile","DTC","Starlink"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/analysis/t-mobile-starlink-dtc-from-texts-to-data-but-how-capable","published_at":"Oct 01, 2025","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTUwMywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--6de052922881a787def16a6037786eb416e2f881/Generated%20Image%20October%2001,%202025%20-%202_20PM.jpg"}],"charts":[],"news":[{"title":"T-Mobile Turns on Satellite Data Support for App Use Today","summary":null,"tags":["T-Mobile","DTC","Starlink"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/t-mobile-turns-on-satellite-data-support-for-app-use-today","published_at":"Oct 01, 2025","source":"Reuters","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTUxMSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--882e8a4ac5de71ef130760aaa11336f8567094de/tmobile%20data%20dtc.jpg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eT-Mobile announced that as of today, its \u003cstrong\u003eT-Satellite / Starlink DTC network\u003c/strong\u003e will support low-bandwidth app data — enabling apps like WhatsApp, Google Maps, and X to function over satellite when cellular signal is unavailable.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis marks a meaningful upgrade beyond basic SMS/MMS, as T-Mobile’s satellite service now begins to bridge the gap into real user experiences, albeit for select “optimized” apps initially. To read more about potential performance of the service, read this week's analysis.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"Blue Origin \u0026 Luxembourg Partner on “Oasis-1” Lunar Resource Mapping Mission","summary":"Blue Origin today announced Project Oasis, a multi-phase initiative to identify key lunar resources from orbit, assess them on the ground, and harness them in situ.","tags":["Europe","Cislunar","Blue Origin"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/blue-origin-luxembourg-partner-on-oasis-1-lunar-resource-mapping-mission","published_at":"Sep 30, 2025","source":"Blueorigin","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTUwNSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--d0e3fea727d265b429f91be83fdbf1b43f5a5852/oasisa1.jpeg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eBlue Origin announced “Project Oasis” in partnership with Luxembourg to map and assess key lunar resources (water ice, He‑3, rare earths, radionuclides) via orbit and ground missions. The first phase, \u003cstrong\u003eOasis‑1\u003c/strong\u003e, aims to generate high‑resolution compositional maps. This moves Blue Origin deeper into upstream lunar infrastructure / resource intelligence, beyond just launch or lander hardware. It could give them early advantage in lunar resource licensing / prospecting contracts.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"NASA Integrates Orion With Artemis II Rocket, Pushes Toward 2026 Launch Target","summary":"NASA integrated the Artemis II Orion stage adapter with the rest of the SLS (Space Launch System) rocket on Wednesday in the Vehicle Assembly Building at the","tags":["Cislunar","NASA"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/nasa-integrates-orion-with-artemis-ii-rocket-pushes-toward-2026-launch-target","published_at":"Sep 30, 2025","source":"Nasa","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTUwNiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--fc6812e73fa25ea3051e2cdba044409c98e97a57/Screenshot%202025-10-01%20at%2015.56.31.jpg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eNASA confirmed progress in integrating the Orion spacecraft with its launch stack, aiming for a no-later-than April 2026 crewed Artemis II mission. Efforts on Artemis III hardware are also underway. This maintains momentum (and deadline pressure) for NASA’s human lunar return agenda, which anchors many downstream contractor bets. Milestone execution matters to mitigate slippage risk in the broader Artemis timelines. Suppliers and integrators should watch for subcontract awards tied to production ramp.\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"SpaceX Employee Claims Starship Mars Plans Still On Track for 2026","summary":null,"tags":["Mars","SpaceX"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/spacex-employee-claims-starship-mars-plans-still-on-track-for-2026","published_at":"Sep 29, 2025","source":"X","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTUwNCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--48fb7dd92efbc9b432e76b04546308c7d858eb3b/Starship%20mars.jpg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eA post on X by SpaceX employee, Dima Zeniuk, states: “We’re still on track to send the Starship to Mars next year.” While not an official corporate announcement, the remark aligns with Elon Musk’s previously expressed ambitions for an uncrewed Mars mission by end of 2026. From an investor perspective, this kind of internal optimism can signal internal confidence (or pressure) to meet ambitious timelines. But reliance on such statements carries risk, especially given the engineering, regulatory, and capital challenges that remain. We will reassess the probability of Starship making the next Mars-transfer window in an upcoming analysis.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"Rocket Lab / Synspective strike 10‑launch deal (Electron)","summary":"Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB) (“Rocket Lab” or “the Company”), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today announced it has secured a se","tags":["Rocket Lab","Launch"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/rocket-lab-synspective-strike-10-launch-deal-electron","published_at":"Sep 29, 2025","source":"Asdnews","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTQ4NywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--6ddb8ca86172577b80606280eea3e1152c55969c/rklb%20sauysan.jpg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eRocket Lab has secured an additional 10 dedicated launches from Synspective, bringing total contracted missions between the companies to 21.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis continues to validate demand for small launchers / dedicated rides in the Earth imaging / commercial smallsat domain. It also helps reduce Rocket Lab’s revenue volatility by locking in near-term backlog. Execution risk includes manifest delays, integration costs, and launch cadence constraints.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"ESA \u0026 Avio ink reusable upper stage demonstration contract","summary":null,"tags":["Europe","Launch"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/esa-avio-ink-reusable-upper-stage-demonstration-contract","published_at":"Sep 29, 2025","source":"Esa","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTQ4NiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--031ea6168c17b7fbbf051677d6050babaff3fc03/reusableasd.jpeg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eThe European Space Agency signed a contract with Avio (Italy) for a 24‑month development to mature technologies for a reusable upper stage demonstrator (flight \u0026amp; ground segment work) (~€40 million).\u0026nbsp;\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEurope has long lagged in reusability; this is a concrete step toward more competitive launch economics for Europe's family of rockets. If successful, it improves Europe’s ability to compete with U.S. and commercial reusable players, also paving the way for a European equivalent of Starship. The relatively modest contract value reflects early-stage risk; execution and scope creep will be key to watch.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"FCC’s satellite / earth-station licensing reforms go live","summary":"Due to aggressive automated scraping of FederalRegister.gov and eCFR.gov, programmatic access to these sites is limited to access to our extensive developer APIs.","tags":["Regulatory"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/fcc-s-satellite-earth-station-licensing-reforms-go-live","published_at":"Sep 27, 2025","source":"Federalregister","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTQ4NSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--464f3800569412554c0ee2b8f56eec755c3c6ff9/fcc2.png","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eThe FCC’s Second Report and Order (FCC 25‑48) implements streamlined licensing for ground stations and satellite operations, allowing more flexible “baseline” licenses and simplified add/remove adjustments rather than full reapplications. These reforms reduce regulatory friction and transaction costs for NGSO (non-geostationary satellite orbit) operators. Ground station operators gain agility to scale capacity or reassign spectrum targets. Over time, it may favor more nimble players and accelerate rollout risk mitigation.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSeparately, but ongoing, as NGSO broadband systems (Starlink, Kuiper, OneWeb, etc.) mature, policy voices urge the FCC to reexamine spectrum-sharing, interference rules, and congestion in key bands. Any future rule adjustments could materially affect cost of goods (e.g. spectrum licensing, interference mitigation) or market access for secondary players. Incumbents with technical or regulatory influence stand to benefit.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"ESA voice raises antitrust concern over European satellite consolidation","summary":null,"tags":["Europe","Regulatory"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/esa-voice-raises-antitrust-concern-over-european-satellite-consolidation","published_at":"Sep 26, 2025","source":"Reuters","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTQ4MCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--6a0182669848a39400ee478882d03f6ef49b2662/esa.png","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eESA voice raises antitrust concern over European satellite consolidation\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Senior ESA leadership publicly warned that proposed consolidation among Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales to form a ~€10B satellite systems JV might “reduce market choice” even as scale is needed to compete with U.S./China.\u0026nbsp;\u003cbr\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003cbr\u003eThe ESA is a major procurer of European satellite systems; its stance could sway the European Commission’s antitrust review. A merged European satellite champion could provide a more viable counterweight to U.S. constellation players for government and commercial contracts in Europe. However, regulatory pushback might slow or shape the structure of the deal—thus influencing timelines, cost synergies, and competitive barriers.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser debut delayed; contract reshaped","summary":"The space plane is now scheduled to launch on its inaugural flight no earlier than late 2026. Additionally, instead of docking to the ISS, the vehicle named Tenacity will now conduct a free-flyer mission.","tags":["Sierra Space"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/sierra-space-s-dream-chaser-debut-delayed-contract-reshaped","published_at":"Sep 26, 2025","source":"Spaceflightnow","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTQ4MiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--58bc0fcf8722f83e173a9515b618a0146997f92c/dreaamchase.jpeg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eThe inaugural Dream Chaser cargo spaceplane mission is postponed to “no earlier than late 2026,” and it will now perform a free‑flyer mission rather than docking to the ISS under the original CRS‑2 terms. The delay and scope reduction weaken near-term commercial resupply revenue expectations and raise execution risk. It suggests the program faces technical or integration challenges. For investors in Sierra Space or its backers, this increases schedule uncertainty and cost pressure.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"Midland City Council approves AST SpaceMobile footprint expansion","summary":null,"tags":["AST Spacemobile"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/midland-city-council-approves-ast-spacemobile-footprint-expansion","published_at":"Sep 26, 2025","source":"Mrt","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTQ4MywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--5a63157f8131728c4a8a5f7cb27cbd7f739316d9/ast%20manua.jpg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eThe Midland, Texas, City Council unanimously approved amendments to AST’s economic development agreement, allowing expansion into the full MDC facility, renewing leases, and adding ~50 jobs on top of ~200 existing.\u0026nbsp;\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis physical expansion boosts AST’s production and operational capacity for its satellite / communications hardware. It signals strong local government support, which may smooth permitting and scale execution. However, the expansion must be matched by capital and revenue to pay off scaling risk.\u003c/div\u003e"},{"title":"ULA launches 27 Kuiper satellites on Atlas V","summary":"Roughly an hour past sunrise, an Atlas 5 551 rocket from United Launch Alliance took flight from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Onboard the rocket, flying in its most powerful configuration, were the next 27 Project Kuiper satellites from Amazon.","tags":["Amazon Kuiper","Broadband","ULA"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/ula-launches-27-kuiper-satellites-on-atlas-v","published_at":"Sep 25, 2025","source":"Spaceflightnow","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTQ4NCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--8eea8a4be4557245ff282abfbc2e3cdf13ed75a1/ULA%20amazon.jpg","commentary":"\u003cdiv\u003eA United Launch Alliance Atlas V successfully deployed 27 additional Project Kuiper broadband satellites from Cape Canaveral, bringing Amazon’s constellation to roughly 129 satellites on orbit.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eWhile Kuiper is gradually expanding its presence in low Earth orbit, its constellation remains in the early stages compared to SpaceX’s Starlink, which has deployed more than 8,000 satellites. The steady launch cadence allows Amazon to begin testing ground infrastructure, interconnects, and customer trials, but meaningful competition with Starlink is still years away.\u003c/div\u003e"}]}
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