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Week in Space: key developments and our takeaways.
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Mach33
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| The Space Finance Group |
{"frequency":"weekly","subject":"Weekly Space Intelligence: FCC Fast-Track, Samsung DTC Chip, China’s ZQ-3, and Why LEO Isn't Full Yet","introduction":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eThis week, regulators and industry heavyweights reshaped the satellite landscape. The \u003cstrong\u003eFCC\u003c/strong\u003e advanced its “licensing assembly line” proposal to speed U.S. constellation approvals, \u003cstrong\u003eSamsung\u003c/strong\u003e reportedly developed an AI-powered modem for \u003cstrong\u003eStarlink Direct-to-Cell\u003c/strong\u003e, and \u003cstrong\u003eElon Musk\u003c/strong\u003e acknowledged China’s \u003cstrong\u003eZQ-3\u003c/strong\u003e could rival Falcon 9 (eventually), \u003cstrong\u003eIridium\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eGlobalstar\u003c/strong\u003e navigate shifting competitive ground. Mach33’s latest analysis, \u003cstrong\u003e“Orbit Saturation: Still Centuries Away,”\u003c/strong\u003e shows that even with Starship-era launch rates, LEO remains far from crowded.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n","banner":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTY4OCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--0920ee46902ce6609310104b8a15403e95282ff3/Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20Copy%20of%20M33_NewsletterBanner%20(2).png","posts":[{"title":"Orbit Saturation: Still Centuries Away","slug":"orbit-saturation-still-centuries-away","visibility":"public","type":"analysis","card_description":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eEven with Starship-era launch rates, low Earth orbit remains vastly underutilized. Mach33’s latest analysis shows that by 2100, total satellites and debris will stay well below sustainability limits, shifting the challenge from space scarcity to smarter coordination.\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n","tags":["Launch","Space Situational Awareness","In-Orbit Servicing","Starlink"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/analysis/orbit-saturation-still-centuries-away","published_at":"Oct 29, 2025","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTY4NywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--43e32122b6304ff70a7b7a2aee2af64a539e206b/orbittile.png","featured_chart_image":null}],"charts":[],"news":[{"title":"FCC Proposes “Licensing Assembly Line” To Speed Satellite Approvals","summary":null,"tags":["Regulatory"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/fcc-proposes-licensing-assembly-line-to-speed-satellite-approvals","published_at":"Oct 28, 2025","source":"Fcc","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTY3OSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--21a84d853edcad87f28a81b48f94393ce64e2bd8/Fccc.jpeg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eThe \u003cstrong\u003eFederal Communications Commission\u003c/strong\u003e voted to advance an NPRM that would replace \u003cstrong\u003ePart 25\u003c/strong\u003e with a new \u003cstrong\u003ePart 100\u003c/strong\u003e framework creating a modular \u003cstrong\u003e“licensing assembly line.”\u003c/strong\u003e The item proposes bright-line eligibility criteria, standardized application modules, streamlined processing-rounds for \u003cstrong\u003eNGSO\u003c/strong\u003e systems, deletion of certain legacy rules including some \u003cstrong\u003esurety bond\u003c/strong\u003e requirements, and extending most \u003cstrong\u003espace and earth-station license terms to 20 years.\u003c/strong\u003e Commissioners framed the move as the centerpiece of October’s \u003cstrong\u003e“Space Month”\u003c/strong\u003e agenda to modernize satellite and earth-station licensing and cut red tape.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eA predictable assembly-line process and longer license terms can reduce time to market, lower carrying costs during pre-revenue phases, and improve capital planning for constellation build-outs. Faster, clearer paths to grant can also sharpen competitive dynamics for entrants in broadband, \u003cstrong\u003edirect-to-device\u003c/strong\u003e, Earth observation, and SSA markets. The proposal is not yet final and will proceed through notice and comment, so scope and timelines may shift, but the direction signals a more execution-friendly U.S. regulatory posture for satellite operators and their supply chains.\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Samsung Reportedly Developing AI-Driven Modem Chip for Starlink Direct-to-Cell","summary":"Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s top memory chipmaker, is developing an artificial intelligence modem chip designed for satellite communications, tar","tags":["DTC"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/samsung-reportedly-developing-ai-driven-modem-chip-for-starlink-direct-to-cell","published_at":"Oct 28, 2025","source":"Kedglobal","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTY4MSwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--6a583c26ff39018a0cccd20786f0dffbcb61fea0/samsunadsfga.jpeg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eKorean Economic Daily\u003c/strong\u003e reports that \u003cstrong\u003eSamsung Electronics\u003c/strong\u003e is developing an \u003cstrong\u003eAI-powered Exynos modem\u003c/strong\u003e for \u003cstrong\u003eSpaceX\u003c/strong\u003e, designed to enable \u003cstrong\u003edirect LEO satellite connections\u003c/strong\u003e from Starlink satellites to consumer devices—potentially bypassing traditional ground station relays. The chip reportedly integrates a \u003cstrong\u003eneural processing unit (NPU)\u003c/strong\u003e to handle real-time satellite tracking and beam alignment, boasting \u003cstrong\u003e55× better beam identification\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003e42× improved channel prediction\u003c/strong\u003e compared to existing models. The report remains \u003cstrong\u003eunconfirmed by Samsung, SpaceX, or Elon Musk\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eThis aligns closely with Mach33’s recent analysis of \u003cstrong\u003enext-generation NTN silicon\u003c/strong\u003e, where AI-enabled modems were identified as the key bottleneck, and opportunity, for scaling Direct-to-Cell networks. If true, this collaboration could mark a major leap in \u003cstrong\u003eon-device NTN intelligence\u003c/strong\u003e, reducing latency and improving link stability without expanding satellite density. Samsung’s role would also signal a deepening \u003cstrong\u003ehardware ecosystem\u003c/strong\u003e around Starlink’s global connectivity ambitions.\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Elon Musk Says China’s ZQ-3 Could Surpass Falcon 9—But Starship Will Eclipse Both","summary":null,"tags":["China","Launch"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/elon-musk-says-china-s-zq-3-could-surpass-falcon-9-but-starship-will-eclipse-both","published_at":"Oct 24, 2025","source":"X","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTY4MCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--8ce064f206f7f60e89cae4bdfd9ab325f6117287/zq3.jpg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eElon Musk\u003c/strong\u003e acknowledged that China’s \u003cstrong\u003eZQ-3\u003c/strong\u003e rocket, developed by \u003cstrong\u003eLandSpace, \u003c/strong\u003ecould eventually outperform \u003cstrong\u003eFalcon 9\u003c/strong\u003e, citing its use of \u003cstrong\u003estainless steel\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003emethalox propulsion\u003c/strong\u003e, design traits borrowed from \u003cstrong\u003eStarship\u003c/strong\u003e. Musk added, however, that it would take LandSpace \u003cstrong\u003eover five years\u003c/strong\u003e to reach Falcon 9’s current reliability and production cadence, by which point \u003cstrong\u003eSpaceX\u003c/strong\u003e expects \u003cstrong\u003eStarship\u003c/strong\u003e to deliver \u003cstrong\u003e100× Falcon 9’s annual payload\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eFor investors, Musk’s comments highlight China’s accelerating progress in reusable launch technology but reaffirm SpaceX’s technological lead and scaling advantage. LandSpace’s adoption of Starship-like materials and fuels suggests the global launch market is coalescing around \u003cstrong\u003emethane-based, stainless-steel architectures\u003c/strong\u003e, yet SpaceX’s iteration speed and manufacturing scale remain unmatched. If Starship’s rapid upgrades from \u003cstrong\u003eV2 to V3 to V4\u003c/strong\u003e proceed as stated, the competitive gap could widen rather than narrow.\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Airbus, Leonardo and Thales Sign MoU to Form New European Space Champion","summary":"In their joint press release, the companies said that they would pool the following resources:","tags":["Thales Alenia","Boeing","Leonardo"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/airbus-leonardo-and-thales-sign-mou-to-form-new-european-space-champion","published_at":"Oct 23, 2025","source":"Spaceflightnow","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTY3OCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--8f5d336b725e4ae1bfa0b66bcfdeea3d53fd433d/thales%20alenia.jpeg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eMajor aerospace groups Airbus (35 % stake), Leonardo (32.5 %) and Thales (32.5 %) announced a memorandum of understanding on \u003cstrong\u003eOct 23\u003c/strong\u003e to create a joint company (effective by 2027 pending regulatory approval) aimed at consolidating European space manufacturing and systems to compete with large U.S. players. \u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e This signals heightened European strategic ambition and potential scale economies in satellite manufacturing and systems integration. The combined entity would likely accelerate rationalisation of European supply chains, reduce duplication, increase competitiveness and may become a more global acquisition target or consolidator, setting the stage for value creation through synergies and potential cost savings.\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Iridium Withdraws 2030 Service-Revenue Guidance Amid Rising Competition from Starlink","summary":"Iridium Communications Inc. (Nasdaq:IRDM) (\"Iridium\"), a leading provider of global voice, data, and PNT satellite services, today reported financial results for the third quarter of 2025 and...","tags":["Iridium","DTC","Starlink"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/iridium-withdraws-2030-service-revenue-guidance-amid-rising-competition-from-starlink","published_at":"Oct 23, 2025","source":"Iridium","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTY4MiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--3ec0baf3b1ab8111bfe53ba438f9ae56c145c5ad/iridium.jpg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eDuring its \u003cstrong\u003eQ3 2025 earnings call\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong\u003eIridium Communications\u003c/strong\u003e announced it is \u003cstrong\u003ewithdrawing its 2030 service-revenue outlook\u003c/strong\u003e, citing an \u003cstrong\u003e“evolving competitive environment.”\u003c/strong\u003e CFO \u003cstrong\u003eVincent O’Neill\u003c/strong\u003e confirmed the move in prepared remarks, while CEO \u003cstrong\u003eMatt Desch\u003c/strong\u003e referenced growing competitive pressure from \u003cstrong\u003eSpaceX’s Starlink\u003c/strong\u003e, particularly following \u003cstrong\u003eStarlink’s acquisition of EchoStar’s AWS-4 and H-block spectrum\u003c/strong\u003e. Iridium will now issue only \u003cstrong\u003eyear-by-year revenue guidance\u003c/strong\u003e, emphasizing business resilience despite changing market dynamics.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eThe withdrawal underscores how \u003cstrong\u003eStarlink’s terrestrial spectrum expansion\u003c/strong\u003e is reshaping the low-Earth orbit communications landscape. For investors, it suggests Iridium may be positioning for \u003cstrong\u003estrategic options\u003c/strong\u003e, including partnerships or acquisition interest, as its niche L-band services face encroachment from multi-band constellations with greater bandwidth and scale. The shift also signals that even legacy LEO operators are being forced to reassess their long-term forecasts in light of Starlink’s accelerating vertical integration.\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"},{"title":"Globalstar Shares Jump on Rumors of $10 Billion Sale Talks","summary":null,"tags":["DTC","Globalstar"],"url":"https://research.33fg.com/news/globalstar-shares-jump-on-rumors-of-10-billion-sale-talks","published_at":"Oct 23, 2025","source":"Investing","thumbnail":"https://research.33fg.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTY4MywicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--4b629b63ca0d470daf6d886f1e4a221ee21063d3/globabls.jpeg","commentary":"\u003c!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN\" \"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd\"\u003e\n\u003chtml\u003e\u003cbody\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eGlobalstar (NYSE: GSAT)\u003c/strong\u003e surged \u003cstrong\u003e8%\u003c/strong\u003e after reports from \u003cstrong\u003eThe Information\u003c/strong\u003e indicated that \u003cstrong\u003eChairman James Monroe\u003c/strong\u003e has privately discussed selling the company for \u003cstrong\u003eover $10 billion\u003c/strong\u003e, nearly \u003cstrong\u003edouble its current market capitalization\u003c/strong\u003e of ~$5.3 billion. The rumored price reflects speculation that both \u003cstrong\u003eGlobalstar\u003c/strong\u003e and its main customer \u003cstrong\u003eApple (NASDAQ: AAPL)\u003c/strong\u003e may be exploring ways to reduce mutual dependency, given Apple’s ~$2 billion investment in the firm over the past three years to support iPhone satellite emergency messaging.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003eFor investors, the rumor surfaces at a pivotal moment as \u003cstrong\u003eSpaceX’s Starlink\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eAST SpaceMobile\u003c/strong\u003e introduce hardware capable of supporting the same radio spectrum used by \u003cstrong\u003eApple’s iPhone SOS feature\u003c/strong\u003e, potentially eroding Globalstar’s exclusive position. A $10 billion valuation would imply a strategic premium tied to its spectrum assets and Apple partnership, but with Starlink’s next-generation constellation encroaching on that band, the speculation may equally signal \u003cstrong\u003edefensive positioning or early acquisition planning\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/body\u003e\u003c/html\u003e\n"}]}
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