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Catch up on the most important space developments from the holiday period. Unlike our typical deep dives, this week takes a step back to present a systems-level outlook for the space industry in 2026. As capital, launch cadence, and market credibility begin to come into contact, we put together a visual designed to help investors prepare for what may be the most consequential year the space industry has ever seen.
We’re also pleased to welcome a rapidly-growing number of new subscribers, and look forward to guiding you through the developments that will define the space industry in 2026.
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| Industry News |
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AST SpaceMobile’s next‑generation BlueBird‑6 satellite successfully reached low Earth orbit on December 24, 2025, lifted by ISRO’s LVM3 rocket from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre, according to Space.com and the company’s press releases. BlueBird‑6 features the largest commercial communications array ever deployed, designed for direct 4G and 5G connectivity to standard smartphones without additional hardware. The launch was confirmed by multiple outlets and represents a key step toward AST’s planned global space‑based cellular broadband network. There were no reported anomalies during the launch or deployment phase.
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SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service has reportedly exceeded 9 million active subscribers worldwide as of December 2025, adding over 1 million users in under eight weeks, according to Business Insider and corroborated by associated industry tracking.
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China’s LandSpace, a private aerospace company, announced plans to achieve rocket booster recovery by mid‑2026 following a partially successful reusable rocket maiden flight in early December, according to Reuters. The company aims for a successful booster recovery on its next mission and intends to reuse that booster by its fourth flight. LandSpace also reportedly plans an initial public offering in 2026 to secure capital for further development of its rocket technologies and increase launch cadence. Company leadership acknowledged the difficulty of matching SpaceX’s Falcon 9 frequency but emphasised continued investment in engine and reusability technology.
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The second test flight of Japan’s new H3 launch vehicle ended in failure on Dec 22 when the rocket’s upper-stage engine malfunctioned, preventing a government QZS-5 navigation satellite from reaching orbit. The H3, developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and JAXA, had already suffered an inaugural launch failure in 2023, and this latest anomaly deals another setback to Japan’s flagship rocket program. An investigation has been initiated, and Japan’s space agency warned that a launch failure typically triggers months of reviews, likely delaying the H3 timeline further. The malfunction occurred after a successful liftoff from Tanegashima, suggesting an issue in upper-stage ignition similar to the 2023 attempt. JAXA confirmed the failure in a press briefing on Dec 22, widely reported by Reuters and Japanese media.
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NASA and Artemis II crew members conducted integrated launch countdown dress rehearsals on Dec 21, 2025 at the Kennedy Space Center, advancing preparations for the first crewed lunar flyby scheduled in early 2026, according to Spaceflight Now. The simulations included full countdown procedures with crew ingress, fueling operations simulations, and emergency egress training, proving critical systems and team readiness ahead of the launch. Artemis II is slated to use NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft for this historic mission around the Moon with an international astronaut cadre. No official launch date was announced at the rehearsal press availability.
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The U.S. Space Force announced on Dec 20, 2025 that it has awarded approximately $1.6 billion in contracts for satellite construction to South Bay manufacturers, including $805M to Rocket Lab, and to a Northrop Grumman‑led team in Redondo Beach, funding the build‑out of orbiting missile tracking and warning satellites under the Space Development Agency’s Tranche‑3 programme, according to coverage in the Los Angeles Times and corroborated by Reuters reporting on related SDA awards. The work will see each contractor produce a portion of a planned constellation of infrared satellites to be deployed by 2029 for enhanced defence capabilities. Rocket Lab’s share contributes to its growing role as both launch provider and spacecraft manufacturer, complementing its existing launch commitments. No launch vehicles were explicitly tied to the contracts in the announcement.
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Sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Dec 19, 2025 that Morgan Stanley is emerging as the likely lead underwriter for SpaceX’s anticipated 2026 initial public offering, with competing interest from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan still under evaluation. SpaceX is expected to pursue a 2026 IPO that could raise above $25 billion and potentially value the company above $1 trillion, subject to market conditions and final underwriter selection. No definitive agreements have been announced publicly, and the bank selection process remains ongoing. The offering would potentially include SpaceX’s rocket launch business and its Starlink broadband segment.
For market participants this development reinforces that capital markets preparation for a SpaceX listing is progressing at a senior institutional level, with a marquee financial institution positioning itself for a historic transaction. Morgan Stanley’s deep ties to Elon Musk (including Tesla’s IPO and Twitter acquisition financing) may influence underwriting dynamics, deal structure, and investor confidence. A successful underwriting appointment could catalyse secondary market activity and tighten valuation expectations for related aerospace equities. Monitoring the underwriting selection and resultant investor roadshow messaging will be key for institutional allocation strategies ahead of any pricing.
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| Mach33 |
| The Space Finance Group |
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