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ASML's CEO confirmed talks with Musk about Terafab, calling him "very serious" and naming the project alongside Starlink as forces tightening the global lithography market. SpaceX flew the first Starship V3 to sub-orbit on Flight 12. Ship 39 splashed down soft in the Indian Ocean after deploying 20 Starlink V3 simulators, while Super Heavy lost engines on ascent and boost-back, ending hard in the Gulf. Blue Origin committed $600M to an 830,000 sq ft upper-stage plant at Cape Canaveral the same day the FAA cleared NG-3 for return to flight. NASA realigned around the administration's five space priorities, stood up a Space Reactor Office, and set SR-1 on a 2028 launch. Rocket Lab booked its first GEO production program with a $90M Space Force award for Heimdall, then filed a $3B ATM equity program the same day SpaceX dropped its S-1.

You can also dive deeper in our latest analysis pricing Terafab. We built the bottom-up model the S-1 leaves out, putting prototype CapEx at $137B in a base case inside an $87B to $191B range, with $336 of fab cost amortised across each chip and $1.19 per watt of compute. Three drivers (yield, equipment intensity, and ASML machine mix) explain most of the spread. American labour and inflation, the variables the press focuses on, explain less than a sixth. ASML's lithography machines are the main technological bottleneck. 

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Latest Analysis
Pricing Terafab: A Bottom-Up the S-1 Won't Give You
May 27, 2026
Pricing Terafab: A Bottom-Up the S-1 Won't Give You
AI ChipsTeslaSpaceXAi

SpaceXAi's S-1 names Terafab, its partners, and the terawatt compute ambition, but avoids the cost question. The press has filled the void with figures of $55B, $119B and, at the top end, $5T; none of which come from SpaceXAi. We built the bottom-up model the filing leaves out, and the bottlenecks we found look different from the ones the press keeps chasing.

 
 
 
 
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Industry News
Fouqet: Musk "very serious" about lithography EUVs
May 26, 2026
Fouqet: Musk "very serious" about lithography EUVs
SpaceXTerafabASML

Antwerp, Belgium - ASML (AMS: ASML/NASDAQ: ASML) CEO Christophe Fouquet told Reuters he has been in direct contact with Elon Musk about Terafab, the Texas-based fabrication project tied to Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. Musk announced the project in March as part of a broader push into advanced chip manufacturing. Fouquet called Musk "very serious" and named Terafab and Starlink as factors keeping the chip-tool market supply-constrained. The first logic chips off ASML's High-NA EUV systems arrive within months, with Intel as the early adopter; per TrendForce, Intel completed acceptance testing of the Twinscan EXE:5200B at the D1X Oregon fab in December 2025, following Tom's Hardware's earlier reporting that the same machine was the first commercial High-NA EUV tool installed at the fab. Terafab cost estimates have moved from the $25 billion Musk announced in March to $55 billion for the first construction phase and up to $119 billion for all phases, per Grimes County filings. Intel is the reported manufacturing partner.

Fouquet has now put the Musk channel on the record at the only company that builds EUV lithography. Naming Starlink alongside Terafab places ASML's view inside the SpaceX equity thesis. SpaceX's May 20 S-1 projects orbital AI compute satellite deployment by 2028, and that hardware needs leading-edge silicon Terafab is meant to produce. ASML's allocation choices over the next 24-36 months sit between SpaceX's stated 2028 satellite timeline and the chip supply that would back it. Fouquet also opposed the proposed U.S. MATCH Act restricting DUV sales to China, warning that tighter export controls would speed Chinese tool development.

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Starship V3 Flight 12
May 23, 2026
Starship V3 Flight 12
SpaceXStarship

SpaceX launched the first Starship V3 on Flight 12 from Pad 2 at Starbase on May 22, 2026 at 6:30 p.m. Eastern, one day after scrubbing the May 21 attempt over a hydraulic pin failure in the launch tower. Ship 39 hit its planned sub-orbital trajectory, despite losing one vacuum Raptor, and deployed 20 Starlink V3 simulators. The Super Heavy booster lost an engine during ascent and additional engines during boost-back, ending in a hard landing in the Gulf of Mexico.

The big result is the heat shield. Every prior Starship had come back visibly battered, and the heat shield is the single piece of hardware gating rapid, low-refurb reuse; the precondition for taking another order of magnitude (potentially two) out of launch cost and reaching Falcon 9 booster-class reuse counts (30+ to date). Pair that with Ship 39 holding trajectory and stable landing with an engine out, this is the closest the program has come to demonstrating the feasibility of full Starship reusability, and bodes well for the Starlink V3 satellites to begin launching in the latter half of this year. 

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Blue Origin Commits $600M to Project Horizon Upper Stage Plant at Cape Canaveral
May 22, 2026
Blue Origin Commits $600M to Project Horizon Upper Stage Plant at Cape Canaveral
Blue Origin

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced that Blue Origin will invest $600 million in an 830,000 sq ft upper-stage manufacturing facility at the company's Rocket Park campus at Cape Canaveral Spaceport, branded Project Horizon. The project will support 500 aerospace jobs at an average salary above $98,000 and will receive state support through the Spaceport Improvement Program. Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp stated the company has invested more than $2.3 billion with 500 Florida suppliers since 2015 and now employs nearly 4,000 personnel in the state. The facility is sized to increase the payload volume and mass Blue Origin can deliver to orbit from Florida.

The capacity commitment is consistent with a separately referenced Blue Origin production target of 60 New Glenn upper stages by Q3 2028, surfaced via a recent Blue Origin job posting and reported by Gizmodo on May 1; re-referenced May 25 alongside the FAA NG-3 clearance. The company itself has not publicly confirmed that number. If realized, the upper-stage rate would support the company's stated 12-flight 2026 cadence ambition while preserving capacity for Kuiper-2 and AST SpaceMobile customer commitments. The Florida state subsidy via SIP also discloses, at the state-financing level, that Blue Origin's manufacturing scale-up is now anchored to the Space Coast rather than Texas alternatives. The announcement landed on the same day as the FAA NG-3 clearance, providing an unusual synchronization of regulatory return-to-flight and industrial commitment.

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NASA Announces Agencywide Realignment to Execute "National Space Policy"
May 22, 2026
NASA Announces Agencywide Realignment to Execute "National Space Policy"
NASA

NASA announced an agencywide realignment tied to President Trump's Executive Order on Ensuring American Space Superiority, restated by the agency as the National Space Policy. The realignment targets five priorities the administration set at the late-March "Ignition" event: accelerating Artemis, establishing a Moon Base, developing a nuclear space reactor, igniting the orbital economy, and expanding science and discovery missions. NASA named new leadership in support of the realignment, including Lori Glaze as associate administrator of HSMD, James Kenyon as associate administrator of RTMD, Carlos García-Galán as Moon Base program manager, Steve Sinacore as acting director of the Space Reactor Office and program manager for SR-1 and LR-1, and Adam Steltzner as chief engineer for Special Projects.

The reorganization concentrates decision authority along the five named lines and creates a dedicated Space Reactor Office with a program manager for SR-1 (target launch 2028 per a separate May 22 NASA workforce note) and LR-1. Industry contracts and Space Act Agreements in those five areas now route to a smaller set of named accountables rather than dispersed center directors, which should compress decision cycles on Artemis-related procurements and on nuclear-power demonstration awards. The reorganization landed alongside the JPL recompete announcement on the same day, signaling that institutional management changes will accompany the program-level reshuffle rather than follow it.

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Rocket Lab Wins $90M Space Force Contract for Two Heimdall GEO Satellites
May 21, 2026
Rocket Lab Wins $90M Space Force Contract for Two Heimdall GEO Satellites
Rocket Lab

Rocket Lab announced on May 21, 2026 that the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command awarded it a $90 million contract to design, manufacture, integrate, and operate two geostationary satellites hosting the Heimdall space domain awareness payload. The contract covers spacecraft manufacturing, launch integration onto a government-furnished launch vehicle, and up to five years of on-orbit operations after commissioning. The Heimdall payloads themselves originated in a prior $80.7 million SSC contract with Geost, which Rocket Lab acquired in 2025 and folded into Rocket Lab Optical Systems. The satellites will be built on Rocket Lab's Lightning bus at the company's Long Beach Spacecraft Production Complex.


The award is Rocket Lab's first GEO production program and extends its vertical integration from launch and LEO bus production into a higher-orbit, higher-margin regime. The contract converts the Geost acquisition into a complete primership: payload, bus, integration, launch, and operations under one envelope, with a single accountability line back to SSC. It also confirms SSC willingness to source GEO SDA capability outside the legacy primes for prototype-scale orders, which expands the addressable opportunity for Rocket Lab's broader Space Systems segment.

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Rocket Lab Files $3B At-the-Market Equity Distribution Program
May 21, 2026
Rocket Lab Files $3B At-the-Market Equity Distribution Program
Rocket Lab

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) disclosed in an 8-K filed with the SEC on May 20, 2026 that it had entered into an equity distribution agreement with 16 financial institutions (BofA Securities, BTIG, Cantor Fitzgerald, Citizens JMP, Craig-Hallum, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, KeyBanc, Morgan Stanley, Needham, Nomura via BTIG, Robert W. Baird, Roth Capital, Stifel Nicolaus, TD Securities, and Wells Fargo) authorizing the periodic sale of up to $3 billion in common stock through sales agents, alongside forward sale agreement structures. The agreement does not obligate any specific share issuance and was filed against an existing registration statement amended in May 2025. RKLB shares declined 6.6% the following session (May 21).

The filing landed on the same day as SpaceX's public S-1, a timing that, whether deliberate or coincidental, positions Rocket Lab to issue into space-sector capital-markets momentum during SpaceX's mandatory 15-day pre-roadshow waiting period. We read the day-of choice as opportunistic, but neither Rocket Lab nor its book-running banks have commented on the sequencing. The ATM structure gives Rocket Lab discretion to issue into strength without committing to a discrete block trade, which preserves optionality on Neutron program funding (first launch slated for later 2026), Heimdall production scale-up, and continued M&A in space domain awareness payloads. The 16-bank sales agent roster is also notable: many of the same institutions covered RKLB on the buy side over the past year, which means the offering distribution is built on existing analyst coverage relationships rather than a new bookrunner syndicate.

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Mach33
The Space Finance Group