October 2
Elon Sets Timeline for Mars Human Landing

Elon Musk anticipates that the first human landing on Mars could happen as early as 2028, though 2030 is more realistic if regulatory hurdles don’t slow SpaceX down. Musk noted that Starship’s fully reusable design will enable a launch rate far exceeding Falcon’s, targeting over 1,000 Earth orbit flights per year by 2028. This capability is essential for Musk’s vision of a self-sustaining city on Mars, which he views as vital to humanity’s future.

Currently, U.S. Mars missions cost roughly $1 billion per ton, a figure Musk deems unsustainable for building a self-sufficient Martian city, which would require an estimated million tons of equipmentn - equating to an impossible $1,000 trillion with current tech.

Musk’s goal is to bring this cost down to about $1 trillion, or less than $25 billion per year over 40 years, a level he believes would be feasible without affecting standards of living on Earth. He expressed confidence in Starship's design to reach this 1000X efficiency, especially following recent advances like the booster catch and precise splashdown of the ship.

October 3
SpaceX Labels ASTS a “Meme Stock” in FCC Filing

SpaceX escalated its conflict with AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) in a letter to the FCC, calling ASTS a “meme-stock” and accusing ASTS and its foreign investors of obstructing Starlink’s Direct-to-Cell (D2C) progress through a “scorched-Earth” campaign. SpaceX argues that its emissions waiver request, supported by technical analysis, will protect US terrestrial networks sufficiently. SpaceX urged the FCC to disregard ASTS's advocacy, highlighting the urgent need for reliable satellite coverage during emergencies.

October 6
FCC Grants Starlink Emergency Authorization for Hurricane Helene Relief

In collaboration with T-Mobile, SpaceX received emergency authorization from the FCC to activate Starlink’s Direct-to-Cell (D2C) capabilities in areas affected by Hurricane Helene. This temporary measure enabled critical cell service, reinforcing the value of Starlink’s low-orbit satellite network in disaster relief scenarios.

October 11
SpaceX Seeks FCC Approval for Expanded Next-Gen Satellite Capabilities

SpaceX has filed an FCC request to expand its constellation, targeting 29,998 satellites. The proposal outlines three key enhancements: 

1. Lower orbital altitudes and inclinations to reduce debris risk and latency 

2. Access to high-frequency V- and E-bands (alongside existing Ku- and Ka-bands) and flexibility to switch between them

3. Reduced minimum elevation angles to extend ground station connectivity and improve service quality

What we’re watching: The expansion into V- and E-bands (>24 GHz) is of particular interest. Since frequencies above 24 GHz are incompatible with mobile phones, these high-bandwidth bands are likely intended for Starlink's infrastructure-level links. The higher frequencies can offer higher bandwidth per link – up to 20x current Ku-band capabilities – but require line-of-sight, are weather-sensitive, and don’t work for direct-to-cell. 

• Purpose of High-Frequency Bands: These high-bandwidth bands would support satellite-to-ground station links or enterprise-grade terminals needing dedicated high-speed connections.

• Urban Backhaul Potential: Using higher frequency bands could enable Starlink to offload urban D2C data by establishing high-capacity backhaul links to cell towers, which could relay data over 5G networks.

• Function of Satellite-to-Tower Links: In this setup, Starlink’s high-bandwidth link would act like traditional fiber backhaul, connecting central data sources to distribution points (i.e., cell towers) that provide local 5G coverage.

• Speculative Feasibility: This model is not confirmed and may depend on telecom partnerships, but would relieve urban bandwidth strain by integrating satellite and 5G infrastructure.

SpaceX could simply be aiming to bolster infrastructure links by expanding into higher frequencies. However, it also positions Starlink to capture share in three high-margin verticals: urban 5G backhaul, enterprise dedicated links, and perhaps even edge transport connectivity.

October 11
Starship Program Daily Operational Costs

In response to a lawsuit by environmental group RGV, SpaceX disclosed that Starbase maintenance and Starship/Super Heavy development costs $4M a day – tracking with our June coverage of the $400M expansion, including 1M sqft of new manufacturing space.

Worth noting: this $1.46B annualized burn comes alongside significant economic returns. Cameron County data shows SpaceX's $3B+ Starbase investment has generated $6.5B+ in regional value, including $90M+ to local suppliers and a flourishing $100M tourism sector. 

October 13
Starship IFT5 Booster Catch

SpaceX completed its fifth integrated flight test (IFT5) of the Starship platform and successfully caught the Super Heavy booster with "chopstick" arms at the Texas launch site — a bold innovation and a previously unproven maneuver in reusable rocketry.

• Valuation Impact: According to our model, booster reusability has minimal impact on valuation, as Starlink is the primary revenue driver with high margins. Booster reusability arriving one year earlier than expected only increases valuation by 1% (~$3Bn), based on Perpetuity Growth EV method (including depreciation).

• Impact of Reusable Super Heavy: This reduces launch costs, enhancing SpaceX’s launch margins and supporting cost-effective deep-space missions sooner.

  • Reusable Booster, Expendable Starship: Reusable boosters cover 62.5% of fixed costs and 50% of total launch costs. One reuse raises margins to 27%, with diminishing returns after 5 launches (~40% margin, <$400/kg).

  • Fully Reusable Starship: Margins exceed 70% after 10 launches, with costs below $200/kg, tapering below $100/kg if manufactured at scale. 

Booster reusability will primarily benefit the broader space industry by lowering launch costs, paving the way for the profitability of larger-scale ventures like space stations and in-space manufacturing, as well as the economic feasibility of Moon and Mars settlements.

October 14
Starship-Enabled, Next-Gen Starlink Satellites to Boost Bandwidth by 10x

Elon confirmed that the upcoming Starlink satellites, too large for Falcon 9 fairings, and only launchable by Starship, are expected to increase Starlink’s bandwidth tenfold, as well as further reduce latency by operating at lower altitudes. 

The next-gen "V3" Starlink satellites are anticipated to feature larger transmitting antennas, a key factor in achieving precise beamforming and reducing signal interference. SpaceX claims the next-gen Starlink satellites will be capable of delivering Gigabit speeds to Starlink terminals. 

October 19
Starlink Skyrockets in Kenya

Kenya’s communications authority reported a nearly 2,000% year-over-year increase in Starlink subscriptions as of June 2024. Satellite services, primarily driven by Starlink's growth, now represent 53% of all high-speed internet subscriptions (100 Mbps to 1 Gbps) in the country. This surge underscores Kenya’s rapidly increasing reliance on satellite broadband to meet demand for high-speed connectivity, as well as evidence of Starlink demand in areas underserved by traditional infrastructure.

October 19
SpaceX Alleges LMT Plot to Throttle Starlink

In a recent FCC filing, SpaceX accused Lockheed Martin ($LMT) and its partner, Omnispace, of manipulating satellite data to disrupt Starlink’s DTC ambitions. SpaceX claims Omnispace rigged its aging MEO satellite to “intentionally detect” Starlink signals, despite the satellite’s limited operational capability, and filed false FCC interference complaints in an attempt to hinder Starlink’s expansion in 5G.

SpaceX dubbed the interference claims “bizarre,” alleging that Omnispace manufactured “artificial conditions” to fake the appearance of signal interference. In a further twist, Omnispace allegedly avoided typical coordination discussions and obtained licensing via Papua New Guinea, reportedly to sidestep U.S. regulations

October 24
Starlink Sells Out in Second African Market

Starlink dishes have sold out in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, just two months after the service won regulatory approval to operate in the country. In just a matter of months, Zimbabwe has joined Nigeria as the second African nation to completely sell out of Starlink kits, highlighting high demand levels across the continent.

Zimbabwe had a parallel market for reselling terminals but this has collapsed as consumers flock to buy kits from the official source.

October 25
SpaceX Challenges AST SpaceMobile’s Lobbying for Stricter FCC Interference Limits

In the escalating exchange with AST SpaceMobile, SpaceX has pushed back against ASTS's lobbying to enforce stricter FCC interference limits, suggesting it’s a strategic play to stifle Starlink’s expansion. SpaceX argues that international standards already deem its network interference minimal, framing ASTS's lobbying as a strategy to protect it and its telecom alliances from Starlink’s growth. As the FCC weighs its decision amidst shifting political and market dynamics, the outcome could reshape satellite communications.

For a deeper dive, see Mach33 Associate Vlad Saigau’s full article on X.