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Q4'25 SpaceX Quarterly: IPO accelerates scaling, orbital compute as a new cash flywheel, and updated valuations for 2026, 2030, 2040, built on Mach33’s proprietary Monte Carlo model.
Analysis
Members
We covered SpaceX’s Q4 operational momentum and the two structural updates driving our new valuation framework: IPO capital compressing the Starlink scaling timeline and orbital compute emerging as the next cash flywheel, now further clarified by SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI. The session walked through how these changes reshape our capacity, cash-flow, and valuation outlook through 2030, with longer-dated implications into the 2030s.

Feb 02, 2026

SpaceX has officially acquired xAI in a deal that values the combined entity at approximately $1.25 trillion, solidifying its status as the world’s most valuable private company. Under the terms, x...

Jan 30, 2026

Effective Jan 15, 2026, Starlink updated its Global Privacy Policy to allow the use of customer data, including location, communications, and inferred data, fortraining machine learning and AI mode...

Jan 30, 2026

SpaceX has launched Stargaze, a Space Situational Awareness (SSA) system that leverages data from 30,000 star trackers across its fleet to detect orbital objects. The system processes approximately...

Jan 29, 2026

Data shared by industry observers reveals that Africa now leads the globe in "sold out" Starlink service areas, with major metropolitan centers marked in red on availability maps. While Starlink ha...

Jan 29, 2026

The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) has unveiled a strategic plan to develop space-based AI data centers within the next five years. The initiative aims to integrate cloud...

Jan 29, 2026

The European Union Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA) has signed a contract to launch second-generation Galileo navigation satellites on Europe’s Ariane 6 rocket. This move marks a policy-drive...
Analysis
Public
Starlink is evolving from a satellite ISP into an end-to-end global connectivity platform. We map what Starlink already solves across home, mobility, and phone connectivity, isolate the dense-urban gap, and explain why this outside-in strategy unlocks telco-scale valuation.
SpaceX Valuation vs Defense & TelCo

Jan 27, 2026

One year after its launch, the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile‑defense initiative has shown limited tangible progress despite receiving $25 billion in congressional funding, according to Reuters reporti...
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