Research Feed

We modeled the AI compute market from 2026 to 2040 as one connected system: what a delivered unit of compute costs by build route, how demand responds as prices fall, and where new capacity actually gets built. The model treats orbital datacenters as a build route inside the same framework as terrestrial, tests every assumption across its full range, and stress-tests the story under thousands of simulated futures. This Premium article is a presentation of the key takeaways.

SpaceX's first quarter as a public company beat consensus revenue by 13.6%, and its AI segment turned EBITDA positive on $14.1 billion of contracted Cloud Services Agreements, two years earlier than our model assumed. We read the quarter against the Mach33 SpaceX Gigamodel, segment by segment, and record what we are revising.

An interactive research brief on how radiation affects AI compute in low Earth orbit. At 550 km, a modeled 1,000-satellite fleet sees tens of thousands of daily glitches, but error correction and recovery software keep downtime to about 8 minutes a year — while shielding mass drives nearly all of the modeled ~$82k annual radiation cost per satellite.