Research Feed

On the eve of the SpaceX IPO, Mach 33 Research walked through the valuation model behind its recently published numbers: a 5,000-trial Monte Carlo spanning roughly 350 assumption ranges. Under the team's preferred EV/EBITDA lens, compute overtakes Starlink as the biggest value driver, with a best-case tail reaching $37.9 trillion by 2040, hinging on ODC adoption, orbital compute demand, multiples, and chip costs. The episode covered how capital allocation flows from Starlink's mid-2030s maturation into AI satellites, why the $75 billion all-primary raise reshaped the model's cash assumptions, and where debt enters through TerraFab and ODC satellite facilities. Audience QA touched on demand from humanoid robotics, dawn-dusk orbital mechanics, and SpaceX's gravitational pull on the entire space industry. The team closed by framing the model as a living draft that will keep iterating.

SpaceX prices its IPO this week. At $135 a share the deal carries roughly $1.77 trillion of equity value and raises about $75 billion, the largest listing on record; SPCX begins trading on NASDAQ on June 12. Our first article opened up the model and walked through how it works, but it held back on numbers. This piece puts the IPO opening price on the page.

Premium members - access the Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel here. If you're not a paid subscriber, you can also request access.

We have been assembling the SpaceX ‘Gigamodel’ for several months. It is a ~400-variable undertaking, projecting the three engines that matter, launch, Starlink, and AI. We are confident it is the deepest independent financial model of SpaceX available. We are continuing to fine-tune it and will soon run the Monte Carlo simulation to derive valuation output ranges. (This is to follow in the next few days, ahead of the listing.)