Research Feed

SpaceX prices its IPO this week. At $135 a share the deal carries roughly $1.77 trillion of equity value and raises about $75 billion, the largest listing on record; SPCX begins trading on NASDAQ on June 12. Our first article opened up the model and walked through how it works, but it held back on numbers. This piece puts the IPO opening price on the page.

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We have been assembling the SpaceX ‘Gigamodel’ for several months. It is a ~400-variable undertaking, projecting the three engines that matter, launch, Starlink, and AI. We are confident it is the deepest independent financial model of SpaceX available. We are continuing to fine-tune it and will soon run the Monte Carlo simulation to derive valuation output ranges. (This is to follow in the next few days, ahead of the listing.)

Mach33 CEOAaron Burnett and Research Head Vlad Saigau break down their updated 500-variable valuation model covering Starlink, launch, and AI compute.Key takeaways? TerraFab may only need about 10% of full capacity to support orbital compute demand through 2040. AI compute could surpass Starlink by 2035, with total SpaceX company revenue reaching $1.8 trillion by 2040. Their valuation range spanned roughly $6T to $18T by 2040, while their conservative 2025 perpetuity estimate of ~$2.5T aligned closely with expected IPO pricing.