Research Feed

In a Mach33 private podcast recorded as the SpaceX AI roadshow began, hosts Aaron Burnett and Vlad Saigau broke down their updated 500-variable valuation model covering Starlink, launch, and AI compute. A key takeaway was that TerraFab may only need about 10% of full capacity to support orbital compute demand through 2040. They argued AI compute could surpass Starlink by 2035, with total company revenue reaching $1.8 trillion by 2040. Their valuation range spanned roughly $6T to $18T, while their conservative perpetuity estimate of ~$2.5T aligned closely with expected IPO pricing.

SpaceXAi's S-1 names Terafab, its partners, and the terawatt compute ambition, but avoids the cost question. The press has filled the void with figures of $55B, $119B and, at the top end, $5T; none of which come from SpaceXAi. We built the bottom-up model the filing leaves out, and the bottlenecks we found look different from the ones the press keeps chasing.