Research Feed

SpaceX's first quarter as a public company beat consensus revenue by 13.6%, and its AI segment turned EBITDA positive on $14.1 billion of contracted Cloud Services Agreements, two years earlier than our model assumed. We read the quarter against the Mach33 SpaceX Gigamodel, segment by segment, and record what we are revising.

An interactive research brief on how radiation affects AI compute in low Earth orbit. At 550 km, a modeled 1,000-satellite fleet sees tens of thousands of daily glitches, but error correction and recovery software keep downtime to about 8 minutes a year — while shielding mass drives nearly all of the modeled ~$82k annual radiation cost per satellite.

AI companies have announced roughly 96 gigawatts of data center capacity. About 15 gigawatts run today. Mach33 tracks the gap facility by facility: ~240 sites and 65 supply deals, each project discounted by how likely it is to get built, against a price tape that turned in early 2026 and now sits ~40% above its October 2025 low. Six buyers have signed build programs that together exceed the entire installed base operating today.

The sharpest technical objection to SpaceX's orbital AI plan is not power or heat. It is that modern AI models are designed to run across hundreds of interconnected chips... so we model how a typical 72 GPU NVDA rack would perform as a node in comparison. Forcing a frontier model into one satellite forgoes up to 44% of achievable output. The penalty is real but not permanent, better software, slimmer models, and models designed to fit the satellite could reduce it to near parity over time.