Research Feed

We have been assembling the SpaceX ‘Gigamodel’ for several months. It is a ~400-variable undertaking, projecting the three engines that matter, launch, Starlink, and AI. We are confident it is the deepest independent financial model of SpaceX available. We are continuing to fine-tune it and will soon run the Monte Carlo simulation to derive valuation output ranges. (This is to follow in the next few days, ahead of the listing.)

In a Mach33 private podcast recorded as the SpaceX AI roadshow began, hosts Aaron Burnett and Vlad Saigau broke down their updated 500-variable valuation model covering Starlink, launch, and AI compute. A key takeaway was that TerraFab may only need about 10% of full capacity to support orbital compute demand through 2040. They argued AI compute could surpass Starlink by 2035, with total company revenue reaching $1.8 trillion by 2040. Their valuation range spanned roughly $6T to $18T by 2040, while their conservative 2025 perpetuity estimate of ~$2.5T aligned closely with expected IPO pricing.

SpaceXAi's S-1 names Terafab, its partners, and the terawatt compute ambition, but avoids the cost question. The press has filled the void with figures of $55B, $119B and, at the top end, $5T; none of which come from SpaceXAi. We built the bottom-up model the filing leaves out, and the bottlenecks we found look different from the ones the press keeps chasing.