Research Feed

SpaceX disclosed the first specification for AI1, its first orbital compute satellite, in June 2026. We reconstruct the satellite subsystem by subsystem from the published figures and the Mach33 Orbital Data Center model, which had already placed both the first unit and the optimized unit inside the range SpaceX has now confirmed. The reconstruction shows a satellite optimized for a single 150 kW figure. Solar, compute, and radiator are all designed to handle a 150 kW load.

On the eve of the SpaceX IPO, Mach 33 Research walked through the valuation model behind its recently published numbers: a 5,000-trial Monte Carlo spanning roughly 350 assumption ranges. Under the team's preferred EV/EBITDA lens, compute overtakes Starlink as the biggest value driver, with a best-case tail reaching $37.9 trillion by 2040, hinging on ODC adoption, orbital compute demand, multiples, and chip costs. The episode covered how capital allocation flows from Starlink's mid-2030s maturation into AI satellites, why the $75 billion all-primary raise reshaped the model's cash assumptions, and where debt enters through TerraFab and ODC satellite facilities. Audience QA touched on demand from humanoid robotics, dawn-dusk orbital mechanics, and SpaceX's gravitational pull on the entire space industry. The team closed by framing the model as a living draft that will keep iterating.

SpaceX prices its IPO this week. At $135 a share the deal carries roughly $1.77 trillion of equity value and raises about $75 billion, the largest listing on record; SPCX begins trading on NASDAQ on June 12. Our first article opened up the model and walked through how it works, but it held back on numbers. This piece puts the IPO opening price on the page.

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