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Pricing Terafab: A Bottom-Up the S-1 Won't Give You
May 27, 2026
SpaceXAi's S-1 names Terafab, its partners, and the terawatt compute ambition, but avoids the cost question. The press has filled the void with figures of $55B, $119B and, at the top end, $5T; none of which come from SpaceXAi. We built the bottom-up model the filing leaves out, and the bottlenecks we found look different from the ones the press keeps chasing.
What Moves $/Chip: Sensitivity
May 26, 2026
Antwerp, Belgium - ASML (AMS: ASML/NASDAQ: ASML) CEO Christophe Fouquet told Reuters he has been in direct contact with Elon Musk about Terafab, the Texas-based fabrication project tied to Tesla, S...
May 23, 2026
SpaceX launched the first Starship V3 on Flight 12 from Pad 2 at Starbase on May 22, 2026 at 6:30 p.m. Eastern, one day after scrubbing the May 21 attempt over a hydraulic pin failure in the launch...
May 22, 2026
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced that Blue Origin will invest $600 million in an 830,000 sq ft upper-stage manufacturing facility at the company's Rocket Park campus at Cape Canaveral Spacep...
May 22, 2026
NASA announced an agencywide realignment tied to President Trump's Executive Order on Ensuring American Space Superiority, restated by the agency as the National Space Policy. The realignment targe...
May 21, 2026
Rocket Lab announced on May 21, 2026 that the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command awarded it a $90 million contract to design, manufacture, integrate, and operate two geostationary satellites ho...
May 21, 2026
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) disclosed in an 8-K filed with the SEC on May 20, 2026 that it had entered into an equity distribution agreement with 16 financial institutions (BofA Securities, BTIG, Can...
How much of the estimated $25.1B per-gigawatt end-user dollar does SpaceX retain as EBITDA? Part 2 of Mach33's pre-IPO AI compute series walks the cost cascade across three business-model configurations and three macro scenarios. Two findings: chips carry the highest intrinsic margin in the stack (67% vs 15% at the model layer), and under bear-case foundation-model conditions, the Anthropic Colossus 1 wholesale lease becomes the most resilient piece of the portfolio.
SpaceX EBITDA Capture per GW by Business Model
May 20, 2026
SpaceX filed its S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after market close on May 20, 2026, disclosing audited financials for the combined SpaceX-xAI entity for...
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May 19, 2026
CNBC reported on May 19, 2026, citing unnamed sources, that SpaceX has tapped Goldman Sachs for the coveted lead-left role on its planned IPO, positioning the Wall Street giant at the front of what...
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