In a Mach33 private podcast recorded as the SpaceX AI roadshow began, hosts Aaron Burnett and Vlad Saigau broke down their updated 500-variable valuation model covering Starlink, launch, and AI compute. A key takeaway was that TerraFab may only need about 10% of full capacity to support orbital compute demand through 2040. They argued AI compute could surpass Starlink by 2035, with total company revenue reaching $1.8 trillion by 2040. Their valuation range spanned roughly $6T to $18T by 2040, while their conservative 2025 perpetuity estimate of ~$2.5T aligned closely with expected IPO pricing.

How much of the estimated $25.1B per-gigawatt end-user dollar does SpaceX retain as EBITDA? Part 2 of Mach33's pre-IPO AI compute series walks the cost cascade across three business-model configurations and three macro scenarios. Two findings: chips carry the highest intrinsic margin in the stack (67% vs 15% at the model layer), and under bear-case foundation-model conditions, the Anthropic Colossus 1 wholesale lease becomes the most resilient piece of the portfolio.