The premium model applies real-world constellation physics to the $37B DTC TAM to show how much revenue SpaceX and ASTS can actually serve. A full supply-side Monte Carlo reveals the potential performance of the two architectures, and projects 2030 DTC coverage gap revenue.

Mach33’s open-source model estimates a $37B consumer Direct-to-Cell market in 2030, driven primarily by large middle-income regions. Modelling on a per-country basis, the analysis shows that dropout prevalence, not income, is the dominant driver of consumer DTC demand.