Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Where Should Space Data Centers Live? The Solar, Radiation, and Capacity Benchmarking
December 10, 2025
Continuing our series on orbital compute, this week we focus on a narrower but fundamental question:for solar power alone, which orbits actually make the best homes for space data centers?With artificial intelligence (AI) driving an exponential in...
Mach33 Expects a $500B SpaceX Tender Valuation; And What It Means for EchoStar
December 03, 2025
Executive SummaryWe assess SpaceX’s private-market valuation ahead of the rumoured December 2025 tender, using two complementary analytical anchors:(1) a 6-month normalized tender-bump framework, and(2) a long-term exponential trendline derived fr...
Orbital Compute Energy will be cheaper than Earth by 2030
November 26, 2025
In Part 1 of this series, we looked at the mass side of Elon Musk’s orbital compute vision: what satellite architectures are needed to reach 100 GW of compute in high Earth orbit without thousands of Starship launches every year. We showed that yo...
$37B DTC Coverage-Gap TAM by 2030 — Mach33’s Open-Source DTC Demand Model
November 19, 2025
Executive SummaryDirect-to-Cell (DTC) connectivity (linking standard mobile phones directly to satellites) is shifting from concept to commercial reality. With Starlink, AST SpaceMobile, and major mobile carriers pushing rapidly toward operational...
How Much Revenue Can SpaceX and ASTS Really Make From DTC? — The Full Mach33 Premium DTC Model
November 19, 2025
PreviewOur open-sourced TAM model showed the size of the Direct-to-Cell opportunity, but TAM is only half the story. The critical investor question is how much of that demand can be served once real-world constellation physics are applied?This Mac...
After NG-2: How Fast Blue Origin Can Scale New Glenn
November 12, 2025
Executive summary• Blue Origin enters a pivotal phase. With the second New Glenn (NG-2) flight likely occurring this week, the next two years will determine whether Blue Origin can convert years of development into repeatable launch cadence.• We m...
Inside Musk’s Plan for 100 GW of Compute in Orbit
November 05, 2025
Executive SummaryMusk’s O’Neillian Turn Elon Musk’s pivot toward orbital-scale computing signals a major shift in focus from communication networks and Mars to large-scale data infrastructure in Earth orbit. By pursuing high-Earth-orbit compute pl...
Orbit Saturation: Still Centuries Away
October 29, 2025
Executive Summary• Orbit saturation remains a distant concern. Even in the most aggressive “bull” satellite proliferation scenario, total orbital objects by 2100 remain below 50% of the Lifson sustainability limit (2.9 million), while the base and...
DTC Phone Hardware Shift: ASTS Wins Early, Starlink Wins Big
October 22, 2025
Executive Summary• Non-Terrestrial-Network-ready phones are arriving. 3GPP Release-17 modems from Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Samsung are now shipping, marking the start of mass-market satellite-capable smartphones.• Hardware evolution drives reliabil...
SpaceX Intelligence Q3'25 Report
October 15, 2025
Mach33’s Q3 SpaceX Quarterly Report delivers the most comprehensive, data-driven valuation of SpaceX available outside the company. Built on our proprietary model, this quarter integrates updated Monte Carlo simulations with new Direct-to-Cell rev...