Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Inside Musk’s Plan for 100 GW of Compute in Orbit
November 05, 2025
Executive SummaryMusk’s O’Neillian Turn Elon Musk’s pivot toward orbital-scale computing signals a major shift in focus from communication networks and Mars to large-scale data infrastructure in Earth orbit. By pursuing high-Earth-orbit compute pl...
Orbit Saturation: Still Centuries Away
October 29, 2025
Executive Summary• Orbit saturation remains a distant concern. Even in the most aggressive “bull” satellite proliferation scenario, total orbital objects by 2100 remain below 50% of the Lifson sustainability limit (2.9 million), while the base and...
DTC Phone Hardware Shift: ASTS Wins Early, Starlink Wins Big
October 22, 2025
Executive Summary• Non-Terrestrial-Network-ready phones are arriving. 3GPP Release-17 modems from Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Samsung are now shipping, marking the start of mass-market satellite-capable smartphones.• Hardware evolution drives reliabil...
SpaceX Intelligence Q3'25 Report
October 15, 2025
Mach33’s Q3 SpaceX Quarterly Report delivers the most comprehensive, data-driven valuation of SpaceX available outside the company. Built on our proprietary model, this quarter integrates updated Monte Carlo simulations with new Direct-to-Cell rev...
Stoke Investment Guide — October 2025 Update is live
October 09, 2025
Stoke Space closes a $510M Series D, bringing total funding to $990M as it scales manufacturing of the fully reusable Nova launch vehicle. Our updated October 2025 Investment Guide breaks down the round, progress at LC-14, and why Stoke remains on...
EchoStar’s Liquidity Lift-Off: $21B Net Cash and a Multi-Year SpaceX Upside
October 08, 2025
Executive Summary• EchoStar converts spectrum into liquidity. Two signed deals move 50 MHz to ATT and 50 MHz to SpaceX, unlocking $31.2 B in proceeds, $11.4 B in debt paydown, $24.1 B projected cash, and an $8.5 B SpaceX equity stake, plus ~$2 B i...
T-Mobile + Starlink DTC: From Texts to Data - But How Capable?
October 01, 2025
Executive Summary• FCC waiver unlocks viability: A +10 dB power boost approved in March 2025 lifts Starlink DTC performance from ~4 Mbps to mid-teens Mbps under sparse conditions, transforming weak, intermittent links into more consistent connecti...
AST SpaceMobile’s 2026 Path: All Eyes on New Glenn
September 24, 2025
AST SpaceMobile is racing to deploy a constellation big enough to power direct-to-cell service across the U.S., Europe, Japan, and the U.K. in 2026, and we map the possible trajectories of its Block-2 launch campaign.
3× Cheaper by 2030? Starlink’s Deflationary Path
September 17, 2025
Starlink’s first service discounts mark a turning point, signaling that broader price deflation is coming as new satellite capacity is due to flood the network.
Starlink Full-Stack Connectivity: $17B DTC Spectrum Bid Could Bypass Carriers
September 10, 2025
SpaceX’s $17B purchase of AWS-4/H-block spectrum and the rollout of V3 Starship-class satellites turn Starlink DTC into a very strong rural/suburban solution, and, paired with terrestrial Starlink hardware in cities, position Starlink as a full-st...