Analysis & Insights

Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.

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Starship-to-Mars 2026: Mach33 Monte-Carlo Suggests 31% Probability

June 20, 2025

Given everything we know today, what is the probability that SpaceX can launch a fully-fuelled Starship toward Mars by 31 Dec 2026?

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SpaceX at Escape Velocity: ARK & Mach33’s $2.5T 2030 Valuation Model

June 10, 2025

Mach33 and ARK Invest map how SpaceX could bankroll humanity’s next frontier, using probabilistic modelling to connect Starlink cash flow, Starship reusability, and the long-term buildout of Mars.

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How Much Does a Mars Payload Really Cost?

May 28, 2025

One fully-loaded Starship can land the first ten humans, and all the gear they need, on Mars for ≈ $2.3 B end-to-end ($770 M hardware + $1.5 B transport). Our breakdown shows where the dollars and kilos go, and how much humanoid robots trim mass a...

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Mars vs Earth: Comparing the Near-Surface Resource Mix

May 14, 2025

We compare the resource makeup of each planet's surface and what it means for future extraction