Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Clear allSpaceX Is Priced at the Floor: Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel Highlights
June 09, 2026
We put our bottom-up SpaceX model, roughly 500 variables, through a 5,000-trial Monte Carlo, then valued every trial three ways. On EV/EBITDA, the lens we judge most reliable across our window to 2040, the as-of-2026 enterprise value centers near ...
SpaceX Gigamodel: The Mechanical Insights Pre Monte-Carlo
June 07, 2026
We have been assembling the SpaceX ‘Gigamodel’ for several months. It is a ~400-variable undertaking, projecting the three engines that matter, launch, Starlink, and AI. We are confident it is the deepest independent financial model of SpaceX avai...
FCC EPFD Ruling Implications: How It Raises the Roof for V3
May 06, 2026
On April 30, 2026, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) unanimously voted to replace its twenty-six-year-old satellite interference rules. The vote ended the regulatory regime, originally set at the International Telecommunication Union's 2...
Starlink Mobile: Bundling Unit Economics
March 19, 2026
During MWC Barcelona 2026, SpaceX announced the rebranding of its direct-to-cell service as Starlink Mobile, a name it had trademarked months earlier. The service already reaches over 13 million users across 12 countries through mobile network ope...
The Space Data Center Mass Budget Behind 10× Power Density
March 04, 2026
Over the past two weeks, our series has systematically deconstructed the engineering pathways required to validate Elon Musk’s stated objective: achieving a power density of 100 W/kg (100 kW/ton) for orbital compute satellites. After detailing how...
The Thermal Rejection Unlock for SpaceX’s 100 kW/ton Compute Satellites
February 25, 2026
Last week, we showed that solar-specific power is the first unlock on the path from 10-20 kW satcom satellites to 100kW+ orbital compute-class platforms. This week, we shift to the subsystem that quietly becomes the dominant hidden mass term as th...
What End-to-End Connectivity Means for Starlink’s Value
January 28, 2026
Executive Summary• Starlink is evolving from a satellite ISP into an end-to-end consumer connectivity platform, spanning home broadband (Standard Terminal), mobility broadband (Mini), and phone connectivity outside terrestrial coverage (Direct-to-...
Orbital Compute Energy will be cheaper than Earth by 2030
November 26, 2025
In Part 1 of this series, we looked at the mass side of Elon Musk’s orbital compute vision: what satellite architectures are needed to reach 100 GW of compute in high Earth orbit without thousands of Starship launches every year. We showed that yo...
$37B DTC Coverage-Gap TAM by 2030 — Mach33’s Open-Source DTC Demand Model
November 19, 2025
Executive SummaryDirect-to-Cell (DTC) connectivity (linking standard mobile phones directly to satellites) is shifting from concept to commercial reality. With Starlink, AST SpaceMobile, and major mobile carriers pushing rapidly toward operational...
How Much Revenue Can SpaceX and ASTS Really Make From DTC? — The Full Mach33 Premium DTC Model
November 19, 2025
PreviewOur open-sourced TAM model showed the size of the Direct-to-Cell opportunity, but TAM is only half the story. The critical investor question is how much of that demand can be served once real-world constellation physics are applied?This Mac...