Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Clear allInside Musk’s Plan for 100 GW of Compute in Orbit
November 05, 2025
Executive SummaryMusk’s O’Neillian Turn Elon Musk’s pivot toward orbital-scale computing signals a major shift in focus from communication networks and Mars to large-scale data infrastructure in Earth orbit. By pursuing high-Earth-orbit compute pl...
Orbit Saturation: Still Centuries Away
October 29, 2025
Executive Summary• Orbit saturation remains a distant concern. Even in the most aggressive “bull” satellite proliferation scenario, total orbital objects by 2100 remain below 50% of the Lifson sustainability limit (2.9 million), while the base and...
DTC Phone Hardware Shift: ASTS Wins Early, Starlink Wins Big
October 22, 2025
Executive Summary• Non-Terrestrial-Network-ready phones are arriving. 3GPP Release-17 modems from Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Samsung are now shipping, marking the start of mass-market satellite-capable smartphones.• Hardware evolution drives reliabil...
T-Mobile + Starlink DTC: From Texts to Data - But How Capable?
October 01, 2025
Executive Summary• FCC waiver unlocks viability: A +10 dB power boost approved in March 2025 lifts Starlink DTC performance from ~4 Mbps to mid-teens Mbps under sparse conditions, transforming weak, intermittent links into more consistent connecti...
3× Cheaper by 2030? Starlink’s Deflationary Path
September 17, 2025
Starlink’s first service discounts mark a turning point, signaling that broader price deflation is coming as new satellite capacity is due to flood the network.
Starlink Full-Stack Connectivity: $17B DTC Spectrum Bid Could Bypass Carriers
September 10, 2025
SpaceX’s $17B purchase of AWS-4/H-block spectrum and the rollout of V3 Starship-class satellites turn Starlink DTC into a very strong rural/suburban solution, and, paired with terrestrial Starlink hardware in cities, position Starlink as a full-st...
Starship Will Reduce Bandwidth Launch Cost by up to 50x
August 27, 2025
Starship’s scale and reusability slash launch costs from ~$500/kg expendable toward a ~$60/kg initial floor, and when paired with V3 satellites delivering 10× more bandwidth per kilogram, the economics compound into ~40–50× lower $/Gbps, transform...
Fiber vs. Starlink: Cost vs Capacity
August 13, 2025
Today Starlink can only handle ~10 subscribers/km²; by 2030 its costs plunge and capacity stretches to ~80–126 subscribers/km²...yet fiber still wins cities on capacity, not price.
SpaceX Intelligence Q2'25 Report
July 01, 2025
Q2 marked SpaceX’s full transition to the Mach33 × ARK Monte Carlo model, a probabilistic valuation framework that runs thousands of simulations to quantify confidence ranges across SpaceX’s key growth drivers. Despite Starship test setbacks, Spac...
Starlink and Hyperscalers: A New Cloud Connectivity Channel
June 25, 2025
Low-Earth-orbit broadband bundled with hyperscaler clouds could turn 190 k off-grid mines, rigs, ships and outposts into a $400 M satellite and nearly $5 B cloud market, kicking off a flywheel of ever-richer remote workloads and demand for more ba...