Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Clear allHow Soon Does Starship Get Cheap Enough for Orbital Compute?
April 01, 2026
Last week we published a bottom-up cost comparison of orbital versus terrestrial compute infrastructure. The model showed that a 1 GW orbital compute constellation could be deployed for $46B/GW under base case assumptions, falling to $24B/GW over ...
A World With 10,000 Starships
January 07, 2026
Executive Summary• Elon Musk’s claim of manufacturing up to ~10,000 Starships per year is not about cadence, it is about cost regime. Whether or not this scale is achieved, the number signals how SpaceX is thinking about the terminal economics of ...
After NG-2: How Fast Blue Origin Can Scale New Glenn
November 12, 2025
Executive summary• Blue Origin enters a pivotal phase. With the second New Glenn (NG-2) flight likely occurring this week, the next two years will determine whether Blue Origin can convert years of development into repeatable launch cadence.• We m...
Orbit Saturation: Still Centuries Away
October 29, 2025
Executive Summary• Orbit saturation remains a distant concern. Even in the most aggressive “bull” satellite proliferation scenario, total orbital objects by 2100 remain below 50% of the Lifson sustainability limit (2.9 million), while the base and...
SpaceX Intelligence Q3'25 Report
October 15, 2025
Mach33’s Q3 SpaceX Quarterly Report delivers the most comprehensive, data-driven valuation of SpaceX available outside the company. Built on our proprietary model, this quarter integrates updated Monte Carlo simulations with new Direct-to-Cell rev...
Stoke Investment Guide — October 2025 Update is live
October 09, 2025
Stoke Space closes a $510M Series D, bringing total funding to $990M as it scales manufacturing of the fully reusable Nova launch vehicle. Our updated October 2025 Investment Guide breaks down the round, progress at LC-14, and why Stoke remains on...
AST SpaceMobile’s 2026 Path: All Eyes on New Glenn
September 24, 2025
AST SpaceMobile is racing to deploy a constellation big enough to power direct-to-cell service across the U.S., Europe, Japan, and the U.K. in 2026, and we map the possible trajectories of its Block-2 launch campaign.
Starship Will Reduce Bandwidth Launch Cost by up to 50x
August 27, 2025
Starship’s scale and reusability slash launch costs from ~$500/kg expendable toward a ~$60/kg initial floor, and when paired with V3 satellites delivering 10× more bandwidth per kilogram, the economics compound into ~40–50× lower $/Gbps, transform...