Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Clear allHow Soon Does Starship Get Cheap Enough for Orbital Compute?
April 01, 2026
Last week we published a bottom-up cost comparison of orbital versus terrestrial compute infrastructure. The model showed that a 1 GW orbital compute constellation could be deployed for $46B/GW under base case assumptions, falling to $24B/GW over ...
The Economics of Orbital vs Terrestrial Compute
March 25, 2026
SpaceX is betting on orbital compute. Last weekend, Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI announced Terafab: a $25B semiconductor fabrication facility in Austin targeting 2nm process technology, with the radiation-hardened D3 chip as its first space-grade produc...
Orbital Compute Supply Chain: Thermodynamics is Redrawing the Rules
March 11, 2026
The orbital compute supply chain is forming right now. Last week, Mach33 released our orbital compute satellite subsystem mass analysis. The modelling indicated that orbital compute constitutes a distinct asset profile from traditional satcom. Whi...
The Space Data Center Mass Budget Behind 10× Power Density
March 04, 2026
Over the past two weeks, our series has systematically deconstructed the engineering pathways required to validate Elon Musk’s stated objective: achieving a power density of 100 W/kg (100 kW/ton) for orbital compute satellites. After detailing how...
The Thermal Rejection Unlock for SpaceX’s 100 kW/ton Compute Satellites
February 25, 2026
Last week, we showed that solar-specific power is the first unlock on the path from 10-20 kW satcom satellites to 100kW+ orbital compute-class platforms. This week, we shift to the subsystem that quietly becomes the dominant hidden mass term as th...
The Solar Power Unlock for SpaceX's 100 kW/ton Compute Satellites
February 18, 2026
Executive Summary• Observers are curious about the sub-100 kW/ton orbital compute satellites Elon claims. We explore why they are achievable within a few design iterations.• The solar array subsystem is one of the most impactful levers; it drives ...
xAI + SpaceX = the Path to Unconstrained Compute
February 11, 2026
The Deal• Reported Feb 2, 2026: SpaceX agreed to acquire xAI in an all-stock deal.• Valuations: SpaceX $1.0T, xAI $250B, combined $1.25T.• Reported consideration: 0.1433 SpaceX shares per xAI share; a $75.46 cash election was reported for some exe...
SpaceX Q4'25 Valuation Report
February 04, 2026
Mach33’s Q4 SpaceX Quarterly Report extends our industry-leading valuation framework to capture a pivotal shift in SpaceX’s trajectory. Built on our proprietary Monte Carlo model, this quarter introduces two major new drivers: the explicit integra...