Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Clear allBrief: The Orbital Inference Containment Tax
July 28, 2026
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The Orbital Inference Containment Tax
July 15, 2026
SummarySpaceX proposes to serve AI from orbit: satellites carrying GPU racks, linked by lasers, selling AI answers by the token (a token is roughly a word fragment; AI serving is priced per million of them). Since the June 8, 2026 AI1 reveal, the ...
What SpaceXAI's C-Rewrite Gamble Buys
July 08, 2026
This week Musk announced that Grok 4.5 will open to the public, pitching it on speed, token efficiency, and cost rather than capability alone. Elon Musk says the company's new C software stack offers a potential speedup "over an order of magnitude...
SpaceX AI Revenue to 2030
July 01, 2026
SummaryOne week ago we sized SpaceX's compute buildout. This piece puts revenue on it. Read it as a first bull and bear cut for the AI-compute side, calibrated against the sell-side ranges from Morgan Stanley and Goldman and built to evolve inside...
SpaceX's Compute Supply: The Option to Be a Hyperscaler
June 24, 2026
SpaceX and xAI consolidated in February 2026, and the combined company is building one of the largest compute fleets on the planet. The open question for investors is what they do with it. Our model sizes the base build at roughly 1.3 million GPUs...
SpaceX AI1: A Subsystem-Level Reconstruction
June 17, 2026
SpaceX disclosed the first specification for AI1, its first orbital compute satellite, in June 2026. We reconstruct the satellite subsystem by subsystem from the published figures and the Mach33 Orbital Data Center model, which had already placed ...
Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel Download
June 09, 2026
Our GigaModel walkthrough opened up the machine and showed how SpaceX compounds, and the public valuation piece put the number on the page. But a finished report only takes you so far. The question most investors actually want to answer is their o...
SpaceX Is Priced at the Floor: Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel Highlights
June 09, 2026
We put our bottom-up SpaceX model, roughly 500 variables, through a 5,000-trial Monte Carlo, then valued every trial three ways. On EV/EBITDA, the lens we judge most reliable across our window to 2040, the as-of-2026 enterprise value centers near ...
SpaceX Gigamodel: The Mechanical Insights Pre Monte-Carlo
June 07, 2026
We have been assembling the SpaceX ‘Gigamodel’ for several months. It is a ~400-variable undertaking, projecting the three engines that matter, launch, Starlink, and AI. We are confident it is the deepest independent financial model of SpaceX avai...
Breaking Down AI EBITDA Margins: SpaceX's Three Capture Models
May 20, 2026
Last week, we covered the revenue distribution across the AI compute stack: how the dollar end customers pay for AI services breaks down across the five layers that produce it. End users pay approximately $25.1 billion per gigawatt of deployed com...