Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Clear allMach33 SpaceX GigaModel Download
June 09, 2026
Our GigaModel walkthrough opened up the machine and showed how SpaceX compounds, and the public valuation piece put the number on the page. But a finished report only takes you so far. The question most investors actually want to answer is their o...
SpaceX Is Priced at the Floor: Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel Highlights
June 09, 2026
We put our bottom-up SpaceX model, roughly 500 variables, through a 5,000-trial Monte Carlo, then valued every trial three ways. On EV/EBITDA, the lens we judge most reliable across our window to 2040, the as-of-2026 enterprise value centers near ...
SpaceX Gigamodel: The Mechanical Insights Pre Monte-Carlo
June 07, 2026
We have been assembling the SpaceX ‘Gigamodel’ for several months. It is a ~400-variable undertaking, projecting the three engines that matter, launch, Starlink, and AI. We are confident it is the deepest independent financial model of SpaceX avai...
SpaceX Q4'25 Valuation Report
February 04, 2026
Mach33’s Q4 SpaceX Quarterly Report extends our industry-leading valuation framework to capture a pivotal shift in SpaceX’s trajectory. Built on our proprietary Monte Carlo model, this quarter introduces two major new drivers: the explicit integra...
SpaceX Intelligence Q3'25 Report
October 15, 2025
Mach33’s Q3 SpaceX Quarterly Report delivers the most comprehensive, data-driven valuation of SpaceX available outside the company. Built on our proprietary model, this quarter integrates updated Monte Carlo simulations with new Direct-to-Cell rev...
SpaceX Intelligence Q2'25 Report
July 01, 2025
Q2 marked SpaceX’s full transition to the Mach33 × ARK Monte Carlo model, a probabilistic valuation framework that runs thousands of simulations to quantify confidence ranges across SpaceX’s key growth drivers. Despite Starship test setbacks, Spac...
SpaceX at Escape Velocity: ARK & Mach33’s $2.5T 2030 Valuation Model
June 10, 2025
Mach33 and ARK Invest map how SpaceX could bankroll humanity’s next frontier, using probabilistic modelling to connect Starlink cash flow, Starship reusability, and the long-term buildout of Mars.
SpaceX Intelligence Q1'25 Report
April 01, 2025
This edition introduces BFM 2, the upgraded Big Falcon Model with ARK Invest's input. This overhaul integrates circular cash-flow logic, utilization modeling, and a dynamic Starlink demand curve, creating the most advanced private-sector financial...