Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Clear allSpaceX Intelligence Q3'25 Report
October 15, 2025
Mach33’s Q3 SpaceX Quarterly Report delivers the most comprehensive, data-driven valuation of SpaceX available outside the company. Built on our proprietary model, this quarter integrates updated Monte Carlo simulations with new Direct-to-Cell rev...
SpaceX Intelligence Q2'25 Report
July 01, 2025
Q2 marked SpaceX’s full transition to the Mach33 × ARK Monte Carlo model, a probabilistic valuation framework that runs thousands of simulations to quantify confidence ranges across SpaceX’s key growth drivers. Despite Starship test setbacks, Spac...
SpaceX at Escape Velocity: ARK & Mach33’s $2.5T 2030 Valuation Model
June 10, 2025
Mach33 and ARK Invest map how SpaceX could bankroll humanity’s next frontier, using probabilistic modelling to connect Starlink cash flow, Starship reusability, and the long-term buildout of Mars.
SpaceX Intelligence Q1'25 Report
April 01, 2025
This edition introduces BFM 2, the upgraded Big Falcon Model with ARK Invest's input. This overhaul integrates circular cash-flow logic, utilization modeling, and a dynamic Starlink demand curve, creating the most advanced private-sector financial...
Q4'24 SpaceX Quarterly Report
January 01, 2025
The Q4 edition captures SpaceX’s year-end momentum and one of the most significant updates to our Big Falcon Model (BFM). It incorporates revised assumptions for Starlink’s V3 satellite capabilities, raising long-term bandwidth density projections...