Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Clear allHow Much Revenue Can SpaceX and ASTS Really Make From DTC? — The Full Mach33 Premium DTC Model
November 19, 2025
PreviewOur open-sourced TAM model showed the size of the Direct-to-Cell opportunity, but TAM is only half the story. The critical investor question is how much of that demand can be served once real-world constellation physics are applied?This Mac...
$37B DTC Coverage-Gap TAM by 2030 — Mach33’s Open-Source DTC Demand Model
November 19, 2025
Executive SummaryDirect-to-Cell (DTC) connectivity (linking standard mobile phones directly to satellites) is shifting from concept to commercial reality. With Starlink, AST SpaceMobile, and major mobile carriers pushing rapidly toward operational...
DTC Phone Hardware Shift: ASTS Wins Early, Starlink Wins Big
October 22, 2025
Executive Summary• Non-Terrestrial-Network-ready phones are arriving. 3GPP Release-17 modems from Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Samsung are now shipping, marking the start of mass-market satellite-capable smartphones.• Hardware evolution drives reliabil...
SpaceX Intelligence Q3'25 Report
October 15, 2025
Mach33’s Q3 SpaceX Quarterly Report delivers the most comprehensive, data-driven valuation of SpaceX available outside the company. Built on our proprietary model, this quarter integrates updated Monte Carlo simulations with new Direct-to-Cell rev...
T-Mobile + Starlink DTC: From Texts to Data - But How Capable?
October 01, 2025
Executive Summary• FCC waiver unlocks viability: A +10 dB power boost approved in March 2025 lifts Starlink DTC performance from ~4 Mbps to mid-teens Mbps under sparse conditions, transforming weak, intermittent links into more consistent connecti...
AST SpaceMobile’s 2026 Path: All Eyes on New Glenn
September 24, 2025
AST SpaceMobile is racing to deploy a constellation big enough to power direct-to-cell service across the U.S., Europe, Japan, and the U.K. in 2026, and we map the possible trajectories of its Block-2 launch campaign.
Starlink Full-Stack Connectivity: $17B DTC Spectrum Bid Could Bypass Carriers
September 10, 2025
SpaceX’s $17B purchase of AWS-4/H-block spectrum and the rollout of V3 Starship-class satellites turn Starlink DTC into a very strong rural/suburban solution, and, paired with terrestrial Starlink hardware in cities, position Starlink as a full-st...
Starlink’s Spectrum Roadmap: Unlocking Bands for Broadband and Direct-to-Cell
May 20, 2025
A concise, data-driven look at how Starlink is lining up little-used high-frequency bands for dish broadband while angling for scarce low-band spectrum to beam straight to smartphones.