Analysis & Insights
Curated data and analysis on the trends shaping the space economy.
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Clear allBrief: The Orbital Inference Containment Tax
July 28, 2026
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The Orbital Inference Containment Tax
July 15, 2026
SummarySpaceX proposes to serve AI from orbit: satellites carrying GPU racks, linked by lasers, selling AI answers by the token (a token is roughly a word fragment; AI serving is priced per million of them). Since the June 8, 2026 AI1 reveal, the ...
SpaceX Is Priced at the Floor: Mach33 SpaceX GigaModel Highlights
June 09, 2026
We put our bottom-up SpaceX model, roughly 500 variables, through a 5,000-trial Monte Carlo, then valued every trial three ways. On EV/EBITDA, the lens we judge most reliable across our window to 2040, the as-of-2026 enterprise value centers near ...
SpaceX Gigamodel: The Mechanical Insights Pre Monte-Carlo
June 07, 2026
We have been assembling the SpaceX ‘Gigamodel’ for several months. It is a ~400-variable undertaking, projecting the three engines that matter, launch, Starlink, and AI. We are confident it is the deepest independent financial model of SpaceX avai...
Orbital Data Centers Report: The Comprehensive Institutional Analysis
April 29, 2026
The U.S. grid is the binding constraint on AI compute. PJM’s December 2025 capacity auction failed to procure 6.6 GW of needed supply, the first procurement failure in the operator’s history. The deficit compounds at 2× through 2032. Transformer l...
How Much Revenue a Gigawatt of Compute Earns in Orbit
April 15, 2026
For the past several months, we have built the engineering and cost case for orbital datacenters from first principles: launch mass economics, thermal rejection in vacuum, solar array sizing, and the Wright's Law curves that govern each subsystem....
How Soon Does Starship Get Cheap Enough for Orbital Compute?
April 01, 2026
Last week we published a bottom-up cost comparison of orbital versus terrestrial compute infrastructure. The model showed that a 1 GW orbital compute constellation could be deployed for $46B/GW under base case assumptions, falling to $24B/GW over ...
The Economics of Orbital vs Terrestrial Compute
March 25, 2026
SpaceX is betting on orbital compute. Last weekend, Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI announced Terafab: a $25B semiconductor fabrication facility in Austin targeting 2nm process technology, with the radiation-hardened D3 chip as its first space-grade produc...
Orbital Compute Supply Chain: Thermodynamics is Redrawing the Rules
March 11, 2026
The orbital compute supply chain is forming right now. Last week, Mach33 released our orbital compute satellite subsystem mass analysis. The modelling indicated that orbital compute constitutes a distinct asset profile from traditional satcom. Whi...
The Space Data Center Mass Budget Behind 10× Power Density
March 04, 2026
Over the past two weeks, our series has systematically deconstructed the engineering pathways required to validate Elon Musk’s stated objective: achieving a power density of 100 W/kg (100 kW/ton) for orbital compute satellites. After detailing how...