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Pricing Terafab: A Bottom-Up the S-1 Won't Give You
May 27, 2026
SpaceXAi's S-1 names Terafab, its partners, and the terawatt compute ambition, but avoids the cost question. The press has filled the void with figures of $55B, $119B and, at the top end, $5T; none of which come from SpaceXAi. We built the bottom-up model the filing leaves out, and the bottlenecks we found look different from the ones the press keeps chasing.
What Moves $/Chip: Sensitivity
Apr 15, 2026
Tesla's AI5 inference chip, due for samples in late 2026 and volume production in 2027 across Samsung and TSMC fabs, uses a half-reticle die design targeting dramatically higher yield at scale. Mus...
Mar 22, 2026
Elon Musk announced on March 22, 2026 that SpaceX and Tesla will build two advanced chip factories in Austin, Texas under the Terafab project, with xAI also participating. One facility will produce...
Mar 12, 2026
Tesla disclosed in an FTC filing that it converted its $2 billion stake in xAI into equity in SpaceX, according to Bloomberg. The transaction effectively reallocates exposure from Elon Musk’s AI pl...