The premium model applies real-world constellation physics to the $37B DTC TAM to show how much revenue SpaceX and ASTS can actually serve. A full supply-side Monte Carlo reveals the potential performance of the two architectures, and projects 2030 DTC coverage gap revenue.

Mach33’s open-source model estimates a $37B consumer Direct-to-Cell market in 2030, driven primarily by large middle-income regions. Modelling on a per-country basis, the analysis shows that dropout prevalence, not income, is the dominant driver of consumer DTC demand.

As smartphones gain satellite-ready chipsets and next-gen constellations scale, Direct-to-Cell connectivity is shifting from emergency texting to real broadband. Mach33 breaks down how new NTN silicon will transform performance, why Starlink’s standardized 3GPP approach will outscale competitors in the long run, and how AST SpaceMobile’s early physics advantage plays out as the market converges in 2026-2028.