Hello there SpaceX Monthly Subscribers,

If it hasn’t hit your feeds already, yesterday we opened the hangar doors on something big: the ARK Invest × Mach33 SpaceX Model - a 15-year, scenario-driven valuation of SpaceX that connects cash from orbit to the first footsteps on Mars. The model predicts a $2.5 T 2030 valuation and $12.8 T by 2040 in the base case. 

View our write up and download the model here. 

What you’ll see inside

• The Reinvestment Flywheel
  Watch how Starlink cash flow compounds into cheaper, faster launches,  and why that makes the moat deeper every year.

• Capital Efficiency in Action
  Starship’s full reuse isn’t a footnote; it’s the engine that bends the cost curve and steepens ROI.

• Mars Optionality at Scale
  Our Monte-Carlo sweeps show that once Starlink cash primes a full-reuse Starship fleet, sending flotillas to Mars shifts from sci-fi to spreadsheet, adding multi-trillion upside to SpaceX’s 2040 valuation.

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Coming up…

Watch your inbox and our X feed—we’ll host a live session with Ark to unpack the model’s biggest surprises.

See you on the platform,

The Mach33 Research Team