We forecast a ~$500B SpaceX tender based on normalized historical bumps and long-term exponential trends. We also assess how this re-rating flows through to EchoStar via its meaningful SpaceX stake

EchoStar trades spectrum for cash, equity, and time; transforming into a hybrid-mobile operator, soon with ~$20B+ in net cash, and the market’s only liquid SpaceX exposure, granting an estimated 24% minimum IRR through 2030

SpaceX’s $17B purchase of AWS-4/H-block spectrum and the rollout of V3 Starship-class satellites turn Starlink DTC into a very strong rural/suburban solution, and, paired with terrestrial Starlink hardware in cities, position Starlink as a full-stack connectivity challenger to U.S. MNOs.