SpaceX's first quarter as a public company beat consensus revenue by 13.6%, and its AI segment turned EBITDA positive on $14.1 billion of contracted Cloud Services Agreements, two years earlier than our model assumed. We read the quarter against the Mach33 SpaceX Gigamodel, segment by segment, and record what we are revising.

How much of the estimated $25.1B per-gigawatt end-user dollar does SpaceX retain as EBITDA? Part 2 of Mach33's pre-IPO AI compute series walks the cost cascade across three business-model configurations and three macro scenarios. Two findings: chips carry the highest intrinsic margin in the stack (67% vs 15% at the model layer), and under bear-case foundation-model conditions, the Anthropic Colossus 1 wholesale lease becomes the most resilient piece of the portfolio.

Mach33's bottom-up framework prices one gigawatt of AI compute at $41.6 billion in annual revenue across a five-layer value chain. Applied to SpaceX's three business models: Anthropic wholesale, Cursor hybrid, Grok full-stack, the framework reads the company's progressive internalization of value capture through the 2026–28 buildout.