SpaceX prices its IPO this week. At $135 a share the deal carries roughly $1.77 trillion of equity value and raises about $75 billion, the largest listing on record; SPCX begins trading on NASDAQ on June 12. Our first article opened up the model and walked through how it works, but it held back on numbers. This piece puts the IPO opening price on the page.

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We have been assembling the SpaceX ‘Gigamodel’ for several months. It is a ~400-variable undertaking, projecting the three engines that matter, launch, Starlink, and AI. We are confident it is the deepest independent financial model of SpaceX available. We are continuing to fine-tune it and will soon run the Monte Carlo simulation to derive valuation output ranges. (This is to follow in the next few days, ahead of the listing.)

We covered SpaceX’s Q4 operational momentum and the two structural updates driving our new valuation framework: IPO capital compressing the Starlink scaling timeline and orbital compute emerging as the next cash flywheel, now further clarified by SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI. The session walked through how these changes reshape our capacity, cash-flow, and valuation outlook through 2030, with longer-dated implications into the 2030s.

Q4'25 SpaceX Quarterly: IPO accelerates scaling, orbital compute as a new cash flywheel, and updated valuations for 2026, 2030, 2040, built on Mach33’s proprietary Monte Carlo model.

Mach33’s Q2 2025 SpaceX Quarterly introduces the ARK × Mach33 Monte Carlo model, revealing how SpaceX’s growth has evolved into a self-funding, infrastructure-scale cash engine; driven by Starlink, Starshield, and rising operational efficiency.

Mach33’s Q1 2025 SpaceX Quarterly introduces BFM 2, our upgraded financial model built with ARK Invest, linking Starlink cash flow, demand, and utilization into a single framework. A premium-only deep dive into SpaceX’s evolving economics and global influence.